Amazon Ads: The E-Commerce Search Monolith vs. Walmart Connect: The In-Store Data Goldmine

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) and Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) both reported this summer, and their ad businesses tell two different stories. Amazon Ads grew 26% to $19.8 billion on search intent. Walmart Connect grew 43% (ex-VIZIO) on store traffic and purchase data. One sells the digital shelf. The other sells the checkout lane.

Sponsored Prompts Carry Amazon While Stores Carry Walmart

Amazon’s chief executive called sponsored products “our largest offering and a key driver of growth.” The proof came from conversational shopping. Shoppers who click a sponsored prompt “convert to a sale 48% more often and spend 21% more on average.” For a brand, that is about as close to guaranteed checkout as advertising gets. Prime Video adds premium video on top, with Thursday Night Football, NBA, WNBA and NASCAR inventory “all sold out.”

Walmart’s engine runs through physical locations. Stores handle last-mile fulfillment for 80% of e-commerce orders, and about 280 million customers and members shop weekly. That traffic generates first-party transaction data few rivals can match. CFO John David Rainey said ad growth is outpacing e-commerce “by a large margin on a larger base.” In plain terms, ads are raising digital profitability.

Amazon Reaches Outward as Walmart Moves Downmarket

Amazon now sells ads beyond its own properties, letting buyers reach Netflix, Spotify, SiriusXM through Amazon Ads. AdsAgent users saw 8% lower cost per impression, a cost cut that keeps budgets running. That cash matters, because Q2 capex reached $54.2 billion and TTM free cash flow stands at -$7.6 billion. Ads help fund the AI buildout.

Walmart is expanding its advertiser base. The Vibe acquisition adds self-service tools for smaller merchants, at a cost of about 20 basis points of operating income growth. The price looks modest. Marketplace sales rose 52%, giving more sellers reasons to advertise. VIZIO links purchase data to living-room screens, but Walmart disclosed no separate VIZIO figures, so I remain skeptical until it does.

Closed-Loop Measurement Will Decide Who Gains Ground

Watch whether Alexa for Shopping, used by over 350 million customers in the last 12 months, becomes a reliable ad surface. You should keep an eye on whether Walmart shows CTV ads drive store sales, especially as tariff refunds running into price and Q3 EPS guidance lands at $0.62-$0.64.

Why I See Walmart Connect as the Growth Story and Amazon as the Scale Story

For me, Amazon Ads remains the more shows machine. Intent data plus sold-out sports inventory is hard to copy. Still, its stock carries AI capex risk that ads alone cannot offset. Amazon shares are up 10.37% year to date.

Walmart fits investors seeking a smaller ad business compounding faster inside a defensive retailer. Shares rose 6.61% over the past week as Deutsche Bank turned bullish on the stock. If Walmart breaks out VIZIO results showing real proof, I would view its ad story as the more exciting of the two.

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