Shopify Just Rallied 35% in a Month: Take Profits, or Buy More?
Shopify stock has left every rival and sector ETF in the dust over the past month, and shareholders now face a choice that cuts two ways: lock in a rare gain or trust that the run still has legs.
One e-commerce platform has pulled sharply away from its peers, and the size of that lead has turned a strong rally into a harder decision for shareholders. Shares of Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP | SHOP Price Prediction) are up 35% over the past month to $173.81, and they’re climbing 2% in afternoon trading.
Shopify stock’s run comes from two forces: a quarter of rapid growth and a steady climb in Wall Street’s earnings forecasts. A gain this large raises a fair question about whether Shopify stock has more room to run or whether it’s time to lock in some profits. The answer depends on how much weight investors put on growth versus valuation.
A Rally Built on Shopify Alone
Other e-commerce stocks have fell behind. For example, shares of MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) are up 5% over the past month to $1,868.19, a far smaller advance than the gain in Shopify shares.
Online retail funds have generally fallen behind SHOP stock during the past month. Shares of the Amplify Online Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:IBUY) are up 6% over the past month to $71.36. As a tech-sector gauge, the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is down 0.3% over the past month to $719.15, which marks the rally in Shopify stock as company-specific.
Shopify’s business model sets it apart from both comparisons. The company sells subscription software and payment services to merchants that run their own online stores, while MercadoLibre runs a Latin American e-commerce and payments marketplace.
A third model belongs to eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), which operates an online marketplace that earns from transaction fees and a growing advertising business, with a recent push into recommerce. eBay stock is up 8% over the past month to $121.26.
Accelerating Growth and Rising Estimates
In Q2 2026, its latest reported quarter, Shopify delivered revenue of $3.58 billion, up 33.7% year over year. Its operating income jumped 67.7% as expenses grew more slowly than sales, while gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose 32%.
On the company’s second-quarter call, Shopify President Harley Finkelstein tied the momentum to AI-driven shopping. “Whether commerce is handled by humans or agents, whether stores are built by people or AI, Shopify runs underneath it all,” Finkelstein stated. He added that agentic transactions carry the same economics as an online store sale, with no new fees, so more agentic volume means more Shopify revenue.
Shopify’s Merchant Solutions segment, which covers payments and lending, grew revenue 37% to $2.78 billion, while Subscription Solutions rose 22%. That mix matters because Merchant Solutions scales with the sales its sellers run through Shopify.
Wall Street’s forecasts have rose alongside Shopify’s results. Over the past month, analysts issued three upward revisions to their full-year 2026 earnings estimates for Shopify and no downward revisions. Analysts’ average estimate is now $1.911 per share for 2026, while the 2027 figure stands at $2.4554.
Considering More Upside Against Profit-Taking
A bullish case for adding to Shopify stock rests on fast growth and forecasts that keep rising. Q2 was the company’s fifth straight quarter of GMV growth above 30%, a run that shows how durable the demand has been. Shopify also bought back $1.42 billion of its shares during the quarter.
Taking profits in Shopify stock has a solid argument, too. Shares of Shopify trade at a trailing P/E ratio of 170x, so a run this large leaves less room for disappointment. The company’s transaction and loan losses rose to $141 million from $80 million a year earlier, and Shopify has cited tariffs and consumer spending as further risks.
Shopify’s Next Report Sets the Bar
Next comes a test for Shopify: whether its upcoming quarterly report keeps that growth pace intact.
Shopify expects third-quarter revenue growth in the low thirties and a free cash flow margin in the high teens to low twenties. That’s a high bar after the recent run in SHOP stock, so this may be a good time for traders to exercise caution.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
