Mondelez Has Rallied 23% This Year. Is Hershey the Better Dividend Bargain?

Which one belongs in a retirement portfolio right now: Hershey (NYSE:HSY | HSY Price Prediction) or Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ)? Both companies spent 2025 absorbing a cocoa cost spike that peaked that year. Both have beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters, and both yield more than 3%. Investors have clearly preferred one of them in 2026. Mondelez is up 23.46% year to date, while Hershey is down 1.89%. For income investors, that gap determines the starting yield each stock offers.

Yield and Payout Coverage: Hershey Pays More From Firmer Footing

Hershey’s annualized forward dividend of $5.808 works out to a yield of about 3.33% at a share price of $174.63. Mondelez’s $2.08 yields about 3.21% at $64.74.

Hershey also covers its dividend better. Its payout comes to roughly 69% of the midpoint of its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $8.36 to $8.52. Mondelez pays out about 71% of its FY2025 EPS of $2.92. Cash flow coverage is also stronger.

In 2025, Hershey produced $2.28 billion of operating cash flow and spent $528 million on capex. That left about $1.75 billion, which covered the $1.09 billion it paid in dividends roughly 1.6 times. Winner: Hershey.

Dividend Record and Debt: Mondelez Has the Steadier Hand

Mondelez has raised its quarterly dividend every year since 2013, taking it from $0.13 to $0.52. The latest step was a 4% increase announced in July. Over the past decade, its payout has compounded at about 11.8% a year. Hershey managed about 9.6% over the same period. It also paid $1.37 every quarter through 2024 and 2025 before a roughly 6% raise to $1.452 this year.

Mondelez also has less debt relative to its size. At June 30, it had $22.06 billion of total debt against $26.64 billion of equity, a ratio of about 0.83. Hershey had $5.61 billion of debt against $4.56 billion of equity, or about 1.23. Winner: Mondelez.

Pricing Power Against Cocoa: Hershey’s Margin Rebound Is Far Larger

Cocoa hit Mondelez hard. Its FY2025 adjusted gross margin fell 580bps. The recovery so far has been slow. In Q2, adjusted gross margin rose 20bps to 34.0%, but adjusted operating margin fell 120bps to 13.1%. Management expects 2026 adjusted EPS growth of flat to +5% in constant currency.

Hershey raised prices harder, with roughly 12 points of net price realization, and the margins followed. In Q2, adjusted gross margin rose 350bps to 41.6% and adjusted operating margin rose 450bps to 20.2%. Adjusted EPS of $1.90 came in well ahead of the $1.43 estimate. Kirk Tanner, Hershey’s chief executive, said Hershey “delivered a strong first half, with reported net sales up 8.7%, organic net sales up 5.8% and meaningful earnings recovery.” Higher prices came at a cost: volume fell about 8 points. Even so, guidance calls for adjusted EPS growth of 32.5% to 35%. At the guidance midpoint, the stock trades at about 21x earnings. Mondelez trades at about 21x even if it hits the top of its range. Winner: Hershey.

Verdict: Hershey Is the Retirement Pick

Hershey takes two of the three categories, and they are the two that matter most to retirees: how much the dividend pays today and how well cash flow covers it. It yields more, covers its payout with cash flow to spare, and offers earnings growth of more than 30% for about the same multiple Mondelez gets for growth of up to 5%. Hershey’s share price has trailed its recovering fundamentals in 2026, which lifts its starting yield. For retirees considering names with multi-decade raise streaks like these, we ranked ten of our favorite long-haul dividend payers by valuation in a free Dividend Kings report.

Mondelez is the better fit for younger savers who are still building wealth. They get a continuous record of annual raises, a lighter balance sheet, and global reach. In exchange, they take on currency risk in Argentina, Türkiye, Egypt, and Nigeria and slower margin repair. For a retirement account that needs reliable income now, Hershey’s yield and coverage numbers line up better.

There are two things to watch next. The first is whether Hershey’s volumes stabilize in its next earnings report. The second is its February dividend declaration: the company declared its last raise on February 4, 2026.

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