Is Boeing Cleared for Departure? Latest FAA Win Sets the Stage for Q3 Earnings Showdown on Oct. 27
Boeing locked down the FAA certification it spent years chasing, signed a blockbuster Navy fighter deal, and ended a costly strike, yet shares kept falling and analyst estimates kept dropping. The Oct. 27 earnings report will reveal whether regulatory wins…
Boeing (NYSE:BA | BA Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results on Oct. 27, a week after the FAA certified the 737-10. Shares are down 14.99% since the last report. This quarter tests whether regulatory wins can turn into cash.
Regulatory Wins Pile Up While Shares Slide
Last quarter, revenue rose 8.0% to $24.56 billion and deliveries climbed 14% to 171 planes. Core EPS of -$0.76 missed the -$0.34 consensus. Free cash flow turned to a positive $631 million from -$200 million a year earlier, and backlog reached a record $715 billion.
The news since July has been strong. The FAA certified the 737-10 on Oct. 20, the Navy selected Boeing for F/A-XX, and a new labor contract removed strike risk. Even so, shares fell from $221.56 to $188.35. Analysts kept cutting too. The Q3 EPS consensus slipped from -$0.1111 to -$0.201 over 90 days, with nine downward revisions and zero upward revisions in the past month.
Wall Street Expects a Much Narrower Loss
| Metric | Consensus | Year-Ago | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 EPS | -$0.201 | -$7.47 | Smaller loss |
| Q3 Revenue | $24.37 billion | $23.27 billion | +4.7% |
| FY2026 EPS | -$1.101 | $1.19 | Swing to loss |
| FY2026 Revenue | $97.50 billion | $89.46 billion | +9.0% |
Cash Flow and the 737 Ramp Will Set the Tone
I’ll start with free cash flow. In July, management guided Q3 free cash flow to positive “low hundreds of millions” despite a $700 million DOJ payment, and held the full-year outlook at $1 billion to $3 billion. That number is the clearest test of whether the recovery holds.
Next is the 737 line. Boeing is increasing to 47 per month, preparing for 52 on the Everett North Line, and targeting 500 737 deliveries in 2026. Management identified wings as an internal weak spot as rates rise, so I want a clear update there.
Margins come third. Commercial Airplanes posted a negative 2.7% operating margin last quarter, with 737 and 787 cash margins “slightly above breakeven”. Watch for proof that higher volume is covering fixed costs.
On the 787, GE engine deliveries were expected to resume in the third quarter, while seat certifications could keep deliveries “a little bit lumpy”. Defense needs a cleaner quarter after a $280 million VC-25B charge pushed the division to a $15 million operating loss. Debt also stood at $45.9 billion, carrying roughly $600 million in quarterly interest expense.
A Cleared Runway Puts Execution on the Clock
Boeing has now secured the approval it needed most this year. The 737-10 certification opens a path to its 1,500+ order backlog, and 2027 consensus EPS of $3.7573 assumes that path turns into profit. That estimate has already dropped from $4.1043 over 90 days. CEO Kelly Ortberg said in July, “I can’t claim victory yet.” This report needs steady cash and cleaner factory numbers to back up the certification win.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
