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Live: Will Seagate Technology Smash Q1 Earnings Tonight After 5% Intraday Jump?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Oct 27, 2:19pm ET · Published Oct 27, 2:21pm ET

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What Wall Street Wants From Seagate's Q1 Earnings After 25% Selloff

Seagate Technology is expected to report fiscal Q1 2027 earnings tonight at 4:05 PM ET, after shares fell 25.39% over the past month

Management previously guided for $4.10 billion in revenue and $7.30 in adjusted EPS, with revenue growth of around 56% year over year.

Investors will focus on Mozaic 4 adoption, pricing power, and gross margins to assess whether AI-driven storage demand can sustain the company’s growth. Strong guidance and improving margins could help reverse the recent selloff.

This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.

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The story so far

Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX | STX Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal Q1 2027 results tonight at 4:05 PM ET. The stock soared 4.66% today but remains well below its September levels ahead of tonight’s report, amid high expectations.

STX earnings explorer

Record Margins Meet a Sharp Pullback

Seagate closed fiscal 2026 strong. Fourth-quarter revenue came in at $3.63B, up 48.5% year over year and ahead of the $3.49B estimate. Non-GAAP EPS of $5.71 beat expectations of $5.09.

Non-GAAP gross margin reached 52.7%, up 570 basis points from the prior quarter. Full-year free cash flow hit a record $3.1 billion. Management says the “vast majority” of nearline exabytes are already allocated for calendar year 2028.

The stock is up 149.23% year to date at $674.43 today, but that is well under the $916.83 price it traded at a month ago.

Seagate’s Q1 Consensus Estimates

Metric Q1 FY2027 Estimate YoY Change FY2027 Estimate FY2028 Estimate
Revenue $4.14B +57.4% $19.08B $25.68B
EPS (Normalized) $7.40 +183.6% $36.66 $57.44

Consensus sits just above the guidance midpoints, so a modest beat is already built into the stock. The fiscal 2027 EPS estimate is now higher than the $28.5848 posted 90 days ago, and there have been zero downward revisions in the past 30 days. Estimates for the December quarter of $8.54 assume profits keep rising quarter over quarter.

STX price target

What I’m Watching Tonight: Mozaic 4, Pricing and Buybacks

Tonight, here are some of the top items I’m watching with Seagate Technology’s Q1 earnings:

  1. HAMR revenue mix. HAMR drives made up about 40% of the nearline exabyte run rate as fiscal 2026 ended. Management is aiming for 50% of HAMR exabytes on Mozaic 4 by the end of calendar 2026. Analysts will be watching for new customer qualifications beyond the two largest cloud providers.
  2. Pricing and margins. CFO Gianluca Romano said incremental gross margin ran “well above” 60%, and guidance implies a non-GAAP operating margin of around 50%. The key question is how management describes the next two to three quarters of customer agreements.
  3. Demand strength. Cloud customers have delivered 3 years of sequential exabyte growth with “no evidence of a slowdown.” Investors will be listening for any update on KV-cache demand, which management called “very early days.”
  4. Capital returns. Seagate planned to retire another $1.2 billion of debt this quarter, bringing the total to about $2.4 billion, while increasing share buybacks.

Earnings History

Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 30-Day Move
Q4 FY2026 +12.11% +11.41% +9.58% +8.55%
Q3 FY2026 +16.94% +4.72% +22.25% +43.21%
Q2 FY2026 +9.58% +0.82% -5.49% -14.32%
Q1 FY2026 +8.75% +1.02% +3.82% +1.69%

Over the past year, shares have, on average, swung 7.54% in the week following earnings.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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