Jim Cramer Says Chevron Beats Exxon. Earnings Will Put That to the Test
Jim Cramer told Mad Money viewers to swap Exxon for Chevron, and on October 30 both giants report back to back. Six numbers will reveal whether that call holds or collapses.
ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM | XOM Price Prediction) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) both report third-quarter results before the open on October 30. Because the two reports land back to back, they give a clean test of Jim Cramer’s October 15 call on Mad Money.
“I think Exxon’s good. I think Chevron’s better. I would make that swap unless you have some tax implications. CVX is a better way to go,” Cramer said. This year, the two stocks have moved almost in tandem. Exxon is up 48.4% year to date, and Chevron is up 47.0%.
Chevron Absorbed the Middle East Shock Better
Darren Woods, Exxon’s board chair and chief executive, reported second-quarter earnings of $14.5 billion and operating cash flow of $23.6 billion, even though the Middle East conflict temporarily knocked out about 10% of upstream production. Woods also pointed to Guyana output near 900,000 barrels per day, record Permian volumes above 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, more than $9 billion returned to shareholders, and $16.3 billion in cumulative cost savings since 2019. “Stepping back, the second quarter was shaped by disruption, but defined by execution,” he said.
Chevron CFO Eimear Bonner reported adjusted EPS of $6.06 and adjusted free cash flow (the cash left over after capital spending) of $15.4 billion, with only about 1% of production affected by the conflict. Mike Wirth, who spoke as chair and CEO, cited record U.S. upstream output of nearly 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and $3 billion in structural cost cuts reached six months early. “Amid geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, Chevron delivered a strong second quarter,” Wirth said.
Wall Street Expects Earnings to More Than Double
Quarterly growth figures compare with year-ago adjusted EPS of $1.88 for Exxon and $1.85 for Chevron.
| Metric | Exxon | YoY Growth | Chevron | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 EPS Estimate | $3.98 | 111.8% | $4.83 | 160.9% |
| Q3 2026 Revenue Estimate | $104.0 B | 21.9% | $61.7 B | 28.0% |
| FY 2026 EPS Estimate | $12.91 | 92.6% | $17.51 | 164.0% |
| FY 2026 Revenue Estimate | $421.3 B | 26.8% | $242.1 B | 28.1% |
Lost Barrels, a Fifth FPSO, and Project Kilby
For Exxon, three things matter:
- Whether the lost Middle East production has come back
- When Guyana’s fifth FPSO (a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel) starts up
- How chemical and refining margins held up
Power is Chevron’s key variable. Jeff Gustavson, president of Chevron New Energies, described a 20-year take-or-pay deal to supply Project Kilby, a Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) project, with 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter power, meaning electricity generated on site for the customer. A final investment decision is expected later this year. Benefits from the Hess acquisition also matter, along with progress toward Bonner’s goal of 2% to 3% annual production growth through 2030.
Skeptics have a case. A guest on CNBC’s Fast Money said that oil services stocks have lagged so far behind the majors that Exxon and Chevron look “increasingly extended.” A Halftime Report panelist pushed back, citing Saudi Aramco’s view that rebuilding global inventories could take two years or more. The panelist added that even at $75 a barrel West Texas Intermediate crude, “these companies are going to mint money.”
Six Numbers Will Decide Whether the Swap Holds
For Exxon, the key figures are:
- EPS against the $3.98 consensus
- The recovery in upstream volumes
- Refining margins
For Chevron, they are:
- EPS against a $4.83 consensus
- Free cash flow
- Afirm Kilby timeline
If Chevron again outpaces Exxon on cash while Exxon’s lost barrels stay offline, the case for Cramer’s trade gets stronger. A full Exxon recovery would close that gap quickly, which gives Cramer’s own tax warning extra weight for longtime holders.
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Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.
Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community.
Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.
Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions.
