ServiceNow Remains Down 20% Over 1 Year: This Prominent Wall Street Firm Expects 75% Gains Ahead
One Wall Street firm sees ServiceNow surging far beyond what any other analyst projects, even as the stock sits in a deep hole and fresh earnings raised new doubts about the AI revenue story management keeps promising.
ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW | NOW Price Prediction) trades at $149.85. The average analyst price target is $157.12, which implies 4.9% upside.
ServiceNow sells the workflow software that large enterprises use to run IT, HR, customer service and security, and it now markets itself as the governance layer for corporate AI agents. The consensus gap is modest. The headline gap belongs to one firm. Bernstein holds a Street-high target of $266, which implies 77.5% upside. When one firm projects that much more upside than the consensus, investors need to work out whether it is spotting something early or is too optimistic.
That question matters more after a third-quarter report the market disliked.
AI Displacement Fears and an EPS Miss Keep ServiceNow Grounded
The biggest drag has been fear that AI agents will eat away at seat-based enterprise software. Jim Cramer described ServiceNow as hit hard by “the displacement trade”, and in April he noted the stock was down 42% for the year. Over the past 52 weeks, shares have traded between $81.24 and $192.97.
The third quarter added new problems. Revenue of $4.11 billion grew 20.5% and beat estimates. However, non-GAAP EPS of $1.00 missed the $1.02 consensus, which ended a six-quarter beat run. GAAP operating margin fell to 9.5% from 17% because of acquisition-related amortization and severance tied to the Armis, Veza and Moveworks deals. Management also guided fourth-quarter cRPO growth down to 18.5%, and Bloomberg reported that the outlook revived AI fears. Shares fell 3.18% during the regular session.
Bernstein’s $266 Target Assumes AI Revenue Is Already Arriving
Bernstein analyst Peter Weed treats ServiceNow’s generative AI tools as revenue the company can collect now. The firm also expects steady federal spending and a premium multiple on free cash flow, which places ServiceNow alongside Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) as an asset-light AI compounder without heavy infrastructure debt.
The quarter gave that thesis evidence. Management raised its 2026 AI net new ACV target to $1.7 billion plus, its second increase this year. AI net new ACV grew 65%, agentic AI consumption in production rose 13x, and the number of customers above $5 million in ACV reached 680. Guidance for free cash flow margin went up to 36%. Chief executive Bill McDermott said, “The strategy is working. We have tangible AI monetization.”
The timeline runs into 2027. That is when the CFO expects AI momentum to “translate to strong revenue growth.” By 2030, management wants AI to account for 30% of ACV.
Bernstein’s model assumes high-20s subscription growth, but management guided fourth-quarter subscription growth to 21.5% in constant currency. Even so, the Street remains generally bullish, with 10 Strong Buy, 35 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell and 1 Strong Sell ratings. Estimate revisions for 2027 EPS are split, with 17 up and 19 down over the past 30 days. Price targets are opinions, and none of them is guaranteed.
Salesforce and Workday Fell Less, and Salesforce Has the Bigger Consensus Upside
AI disruption fears hit the whole software group, but ServiceNow fell the most over the past year.
Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is down 3.95% over one year at $242.18. Its $287.08 average target implies 18.5% upside. Ratings include 6 Strong Buy, 32 Buy, 15 Hold and 2 Strong Sell. Its consensus upside is larger than ServiceNow’s.
Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY) is down 13.75% over one year at $204.36. Against a $209.25 target, it has 2.4% upside. Hold ratings (19) nearly match Buy and Strong Buy combined, which makes it the most cautiously rated of the three.
On consensus targets, Salesforce has the most upside. ServiceNow’s case for a large rebound depends on Bernstein’s outlier call.
A Wide Gap Separates ServiceNow From the S&P 500
ServiceNow trades at $149.85 against a $157.12 consensus target, which implies 4.9% upside across 49 rated analysts. The stock is down 20.11% over one year and 2.18% year to date. It has bounced 14% over the past month.
The S&P 500 is up 12.42% over one year and 13.27% year to date. ServiceNow trades at a forward P/E of 31, and analysts expect 2027 EPS of $5.0017.
ServiceNow’s Rebound Case Hinges on Margins and cRPO
ServiceNow’s upside case improves if the AI ACV ramp turns into the revenue acceleration in 2027 that management keeps promising, and if acquisition costs decline enough for margins to recover. But it looks like a value trap if the drop in cRPO growth continues, if goodwill from the Armis, Veza and Moveworks deals turns into an integration problem, or if AI agents eat into seat revenue faster than consumption pricing can replace it.
That optimistic view has support. The AI numbers are real, and free cash flow guidance went up even though GAAP margins took a hit. Still, the consensus target leaves little room, so reaching Bernstein’s target requires faster growth than ServiceNow is currently guiding to. Watch the fourth-quarter cRPO figure closely.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
