Trump’s Commerce Department’s Intel Stake Fell By More Than $10 Billion In A Day As Stock Craters

Shares of Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) traded at $65.91 as of 10:29 AM ET on October 30, 2026, down 28.41% from the $92.07 close on Oct. 29. The stock was still trading. At that price, the 433,323,000 shares the Commerce Department bought under its August 2025 agreement were worth about $28.56 billion, compared with about $39.9 billion at the prior close. That is a decline of about $11.34 billion in the stake’s value in one session, based on our calculation.

Here is the other side: the stake is still worth about $19.66 billion more than the $8.9 billion the government paid, or about 3.2 times its cost. No sale of those shares has been disclosed.

Why the Guidance Sank Intel’s Stock

The quarter itself was strong. Third-quarter revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, and adjusted earnings of $0.52 a share beat the $0.40 estimate, per Yahoo Finance. The outlook is what hurt. Per 24/7 Wall St. and Yahoo Finance reporting, Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion, below the about $17 billion expected. It forecast adjusted earnings to $0.25 a share, below expectations of $0.43 to $0.44.

Intel projects the PC market shrinking 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027 as a memory-chip shortage raises PC prices. It also expects an accident that shut down its Israel factory to cut about $300 million from fourth-quarter revenue. Chief Financial Officer Dave Zinsner also warned about 2027: “I don’t think that this will be a year in which we see positive cash flow.”

What Commerce Paid and What It Holds

Under the agreement filed with Intel’s 8-K, Commerce bought 433,323,000 new common shares and received warrants on 240,516,150 more shares. Warrants are rights to buy stock later at a fixed price. Per Fierce Electronics, the government paid $20.47 a share for about 10% of Intel. The money came from $5.7 billion in CHIPS Act grants that had been awarded but not yet paid, plus $3.2 billion from the Secure Enclave program. Howard Lutnick, then Commerce Secretary, posted on X in August 2025: “BIG NEWS: The United States of America now owns 10% of Intel, one of our great American technology companies.”

The five-year warrant has a $20 exercise price and can be used only if Intel stops owning at least 51% of its foundry business, per Fierce Electronics. Per the 8-K, Commerce agreed to show up at shareholder meetings and vote with Intel’s board, with exceptions for matters that would break the agreement or materially harm Intel’s relationship with the federal government.

Reality Check Before You Panic

The selling spread across tech. Per 24/7 Wall St. coverage, Dell (NYSE:DELL) fell about 13%, AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) about 10% and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) about 3%, all intraday. Even after the drop, Intel remained up 78.62% year to date. The weak spot is the foundry business, Intel’s contract manufacturing unit, which posted a $1.85 billion third-quarter operating loss. Management said customers were working on Intel 14A but declined to name them.

Does This Change the Government’s Position?

No. A one-day paper decline leaves Commerce well ahead of its cost. The bigger questions for shareholders are the PC slump and whether the foundry business can land paying customers. Intel said it expects to have foundry customers ready to announce over the “next two quarters”. Three things are worth checking: whether the stock closes above the session low of $64.11, how other chip stocks close, and whether Intel names an external foundry customer by its first-quarter 2027 report. If no customer is named by then, the guidance cut becomes a foundry problem as well as a PC problem.

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