Exxon Is Up 59% This Year After Another Beat. This Is How High It Can Go.
Exxon just crushed earnings again and hit a new 52-week high, yet analysts are divided on whether the historic rally still has room to run or has already priced in every piece of good news.
Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM | XOM Price Prediction) beat earnings estimates again this morning. Shares rose to $188.30 in early trading, which puts the year-to-date gain at 59.59%.
The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Exxon is $173.08. That means -5.57% downside from the $183.29 close our model used.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $183.29 |
| Price Target (24/7 Wall St.) | $173.08 |
| Upside/Downside | -5.57% |
| Rating | HOLD |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
We have high confidence in this rating. The beat moved our target up sharply. One week ago, the model sat at $140.77 with a sell rating. Higher earnings and record-level cash flow closed most of the gap between Exxon’s fundamentals and its share price.
Why We Could Be Wrong
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target is below where Exxon trades today. Upside could come from Guyana and Permian volume growth or from oil prices that stay higher for longer. Treat our target as one datapoint among many. The bull case below explains why Exxon could beat our model.
Refining Boom Drives a Clean Third-Quarter Beat
Over the past week the stock added 5.65%. It is up 16.7% over the past month and 66.34% over the past year. Today’s move drove it above its prior 52-week high of $184.88, far from the $109.34 low.
Adjusted EPS of $4.23 exceeded the $3.98 consensus. Revenue of $110.50B beat the $104.03B estimate, and free cash flow reached $19.10B. Reuters credited a war-driven refining surge for the results. WTI averaged $97.31 in September, compared with $60.04 in January.
Why Bulls See $213 Ahead
Exxon’s growth engine is real. Permian output hit a record above 1.8 Moebd, and the company plans 9% CAGR through 2030. A fifth Guyana FPSO added 250 Kbd of capacity. Golden Pass LNG volumes are rising, and Exxon has announced a $20B buyback for 2027.
CEO Darren Woods called the gains “lasting improvements, not simply the result of favorable prices and margins.” Among analysts, 3 rate the stock a higher buy and 7 rate it a buy. Our one-year bull case is $185.20, and our five-year bull path reaches $213.20.
Risks That Could Pull Exxon Back to $150
Most analysts sit on the sidelines, with 15 hold ratings and a consensus target of $179.41. Middle East disruptions have cost $921M so far this year. Impairments total $1.08B, and chemical margins remain under pressure. The EIA expects oil prices to reflect a larger risk premium while Hormuz flows recover, but that premium could fade.
GAAP EPS of $3.72 trailed adjusted EPS. Bulls would note that the $2.54B of negative timing effects came from unsettled derivatives, and those effects tend to reverse. The bear case is $150.68.
How Exxon Compares to Chevron and ConocoPhillips
| Company | Forward P/E | Dividend Yield |
|---|---|---|
| Exxon | 15x | 2.29% |
| Chevron | 17x | 3.06% |
| ConocoPhillips | 14x | 2.21% |
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is Exxon’s closest integrated rival. It posted adjusted EPS of $5.28 against a $4.826 estimate, and it trades at a richer multiple with a higher yield.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is the pure upstream contrast. It trades at a slightly lower multiple even though it lacks Exxon’s refining buffer. Against this group, our 24/7 Wall St. price target looks reasonable.
Why Our Rating Stays at Hold After a Historic Run
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $173.08 has a hold rating with 90% confidence. What drives the call is that consensus expects slightly lower forward earnings even after a 59.59% year-to-date rally.
The stock would look more attractive if Guyana and Permian growth raises 2027 estimates. Downside risk rises if oil falls as Hormuz flows normalize. Exxon is a high-quality company, but its shares already reflect most of that quality.
Exxon Mobil Price Prediction 2026-2030
| Year | Price Target (24/7 Wall St.) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $173.08 |
| 2027 | $172.86 |
| 2028 | $171.22 |
| 2029 | $172.92 |
| 2030 | $177.95 |
The oil giant would need to keep executing on its current strategy for these projections to hold. A sustained oil price shock or faster Guyana growth could move results sharply in either direction.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
