Exxon Posts Its Best Profit in Four Years, Here’s Where It’ll End The Year

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM | XOM Price Prediction) posted its best underlying quarterly profit in four years, with shares hitting fresh highs. After a 30.9% year-to-date run, risk/reward looks stretched.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Exxon is $139.86, implying 9.14% downside from current levels. The recommendation is hold with 90% confidence, reflecting strong operations colliding with a rich multiple.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Why We Could Be Wrong on Exxon

Our price target sits below current trading levels, and the bull argument is real. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 shipped its first cargo in April 2026, Guyana keeps beating schedule, and WTI is up 19.8% month over month to $84.25. If Brent stays elevated on Middle East risk, Exxon could easily exceed our target.

A Four-Year Profit Peak Meets a 44% Rally

Exxon shares are up 43.65% over the past year and 14.06% in July alone, sitting just 5% below the 52-week high of $175.22.

Q1 2026 delivered adjusted EPS of $1.16 versus $1.01 expected, a 15.15% beat and the fourth straight quarter above consensus.

Underlying earnings hit $8.77 billion versus $7.58 billion a year earlier, the strongest underlying quarter in roughly four years, despite GAAP results dinged by $3.88 billion in unfavorable derivative mark-to-market timing and $706 million in Middle East disruption losses. CEO Darren Woods called it a “fundamentally stronger company”.

The Case for $164 and Higher

Bulls cite a genuinely improved earnings engine. Cumulative structural cost savings since 2019 hit $15.6 billion, targeting $20 billion by 2030. Guyana crossed 900,000 barrels per day, Permian hit records, and advantaged assets grew to 59% of production.

Capital return is exceptional: $20 billion in 2026 buybacks planned and 43 consecutive years of dividend growth. Analyst consensus sits at $167.09, with bull-case scenarios reaching $164.10, a 6.6% return. If Brent holds near the EIA’s $106/b Q2 forecast, upside estimates look conservative.

What Could Send Shares Back to $125

The bear case starts with valuation. Exxon trades at a a premium trailing multiple, well above peers, and the 224.56% five-year rally already prices in significant upside.

Q1 free cash flow fell 61.74% to $2.70 billion as capex climbed, and the effective tax rate jumped to 40%. The EIA expects Brent to fall to $79/b in 2027 as Middle East supply returns. Our bear-case scenario points to $125.51, an 18.47% drop.

How Exxon Compares to Chevron and ConocoPhillips

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) trades at a forward P/E of 14 versus Exxon’s 14, but its trailing P/E is 19 versus Exxon’s 26. Chevron’s analyst target of $215 implies meaningful upside, suggesting the Street sees Exxon’s premium as harder to justify.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) offers a pure upstream contrast. COP trades at a a lower forward multiple with a a lower PEG than Exxon. COP looks cheaper per unit of growth, reinforcing our view that Exxon’s target should sit closer to $140 than $167.

Model Verdict: Rich Multiple Meets Stronger Engine

The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $139.86, recommendation hold, confidence 90%. Valuation tips the scale: this is a fundamentally stronger Exxon, but a premium trailing multiple and 5% from the 52-week high leaves little margin for error.

The setup improves if crude sustains above $90 and free cash flow reaccelerates in Q2. Downside risk grows if Brent slides toward the EIA’s 2027 forecast. The current dividend yield sits at 2.6%.

Here is where our model projects Exxon could trade, assuming current growth trajectories hold.

These projections assume Exxon continues executing on cost savings and advantaged-asset growth. Significant upside or downside could come from sustained Middle East disruption or faster-than-expected energy transition.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.