‘Marking Their Calendar Until November 3rd.’ Tom Lee Says Investors Waiting To Buy The Dip After The Nasdaq 100’s Worst Month Since March 2025
Fundstrat's Tom Lee says institutional investors have circled a specific date on their calendars before they commit new money to this battered market, and it has nothing to do with earnings season.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believes dip buyers are waiting for a specific date. “I think people are going to plan to buy the dip,” Lee said. “But as strange as it sounds, I think people are marking their calendar until November 3rd.” He made the comment to CNBC on Friday, Oct. 30, according to Stocktwits’ account of the interview. Stocktwits describes Lee as Fundstrat’s managing partner, and he is one of Wall Street’s most closely followed equity bulls. The midterm elections take place Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Nasdaq-100 Investors Just Had Their Worst Month Since March 2025
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, fell 6.66% in October. That was its worst month since March 2025, when it dropped 7.72%. October narrowly beat July 2026’s 6.57% drop for that title. Stocktwits reported that the index itself fell 6.65% in October, compared with 7.69% in March 2025. The broader market held up better: the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (NASDAQ:ONEQ) fell 5.28%.
On Oct. 30, QQQ fell 3.47% after Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) dropped 28.58%. Intel’s third-quarter numbers had beaten estimates. Revenue came in at $16.51B, and non-GAAP EPS was $0.52, ahead of the $0.40 consensus, according to Intel’s earnings release filed with the SEC. Data Center and AI revenue rose 78%. The guidance is what hurt the stock. Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15.0-$16.0B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25. It also said a factory incident in Israel would cut revenue by about $300 million. Intel made up 3.04% of QQQ’s net assets as of June 30, so a drop that large moved the whole fund.
Why Lee Says Institutions Are Holding Off Until After the Midterms
“Our institutional investors just don’t have conviction until after midterm,” Lee said. “So I think between now and November 3rd, it doesn’t take a lot for stocks to fall a lot, because I just don’t know if there’s as much dip buying conviction until after November 3rd.”
Asked whether investors were waiting on the election, he said: “Yes. Because I think there’s a lot of doom-saying about the midterms.” He added, “I do think a lot of people are kind of hesitant, hesitant to say, I want to buy this dip at this moment.”
About Friday’s selling, Lee said, “Today looks like someone’s getting liquidated,” but added that he could not tell whether the selling came from institutions or from investors with heavily concentrated positions. He also pointed to a positive sign: “But at the same time, the equal weight market is rising. So I think there still is plenty of money sloshing around.”
The equal-weight index was up while he talking, but it closed lower. Even so, it held up much better than the cap-weighted market. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:RSP) slipped 0.79%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) fell 1.77%, a gap of 0.98 percentage points. The largest stocks took the hardest selling.
Lee Predicted a Fall Pullback in September
A German-language stock3 summary of Lee’s CNBC Closing Bell appearance after the Fed’s Sept. 16 decision says he expected the S&P 500 to pull back about 7% in October or early November. According to the same summary, he saw the index possibly ending up 2026 above 8,200 and called the fourth quarter “the start of one of the biggest market rallies in our lifetime.”
Rates add pressure. The ten-year Treasury yield was 4.94% on Oct. 30. BeInCrypto reported that CME FedWatch put the odds of a December rate hike at 72% as of Oct. 31.
Tuesday’s Vote Is the Date Big Investors Are Waiting For
According to BeInCrypto, CNBC’s anchor said markets expect Democrats to edge ahead in both chambers. Lee said the institutions he talks to want the vote behind them before they commit new money.
What Tech-Heavy 401(k) Holders Should Track This Week
Lee is describing when institutions plan to buy, which is a call on investor timing rather than on market direction. A rebound after the election is one possible result. Rate-hike odds and Treasury yields could still weigh on stocks.
For anyone holding QQQ or a tech-heavy index fund in a 401(k), the bigger lesson is concentration. As of June 30, NVIDIA made up 7.60% of QQQ’s net assets, Apple 6.67% and Micron 5.64%. As Intel just showed, one earnings report from a top holding can move the entire fund. This week, watch three things: how markets react to the election results, whether equal-weight funds keep beating cap-weighted ones, and whether the odds of a December rate hike change.
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AJ spent 10 years writing about financial markets at The Motley Fool. His coverage centers on technology stocks and the broader macroeconomic trends, from interest rates to geopolitics, that shape where markets are headed next. AJ is drawn to the stories where big-picture economics and individual companies collide.
