The Dow Just Jumped 1,569 Points for Its Best Post-Midterm Day in 44 Years
Relief, cheaper oil and a calmer VIX sent Wall Street soaring after the midterms, yet no major index hit a record, and one fund quietly did. Which one reveals the rally's real story, and what could unravel it?
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The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:DIA) closed at $533.11 on November 4, 2026. That day the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,569.40 points, or 3.03%, to 53,356.12. The Motley Fool called it the Dow’s best day after a midterm election in 44 years, measured in percentage terms.
The session came right after midterm elections in which Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress. It was also the Dow’s best day since April 9, 2025, when Trump announced his tariff pause.
The buying reached most of the index, with 27 of the 30 Dow stocks closing higher. Still, the Dow finished 1.83% below its record close of 54,349.12 from August 5, 2026, and the October jobs report comes out on November 6.
Relief, Cheaper Oil and a Calmer VIX Drove the Rally
Trump said he accepted the results and would work with Democrats, and stock futures rebounded on those reports, though some on Wall Street had feared he would contest the outcome.
George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said accepting the results could limit extreme policy outcomes if Trump keeps that position. Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, called Trump an X factor who could change his mind, since accepting the results is a stated position and carries less weight than a commitment.
Oil was the second driver. West Texas Intermediate crude, the main U.S. oil price, fell more than 8% to close at $88.12 a barrel, which eases concerns about inflation and interest rates.
The VIX measures how much traders expect stocks to swing over the next 30 days. It fell 4.22 points to 16.61, a 20.26% drop. Strategists pointed to these drivers, but none of them is a proven cause.
Price Weighting Gave DIA Holders a Bigger Day
The Dow is price-weighted, so a stock with a higher share price moves the index more, regardless of the company’s size. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) rose 6.68% to $555.80, adding about 207 points. Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) fell 5.23% to $591.30, down about 194 points.
The day’s leading sectors fit the Dow’s mix of companies. That helps explain why it beat the S&P 500, up 1.58% to 7,688.62, and the Nasdaq Composite, up 1.44% to 25,736.51.
Consumer discretionary stocks gained 4.27%, and financials gained 3.46%, while energy fell 4.77%. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) fell 3.17% to $200.13, dragging down AI-related shares that day.
Midterm History and the Record-High Claim
The day after a midterm election has gone very differently in different years. The Dow rose 4.25% on November 3, 1982, and 2.1% on November 7, 2018. On November 9, 2022, DIA fell 1.92%.
Trump posted on Truth Social that the market had just hit another record high. None of the major indexes closed at a record. The S&P 500 ended 1.67% below its October 6 record of 7,818.93, and the Nasdaq ended 6.75% below its 27,599.79 close from that day.
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:RSP) did reach a high. It closed at $223.33, its best close in data going back to November 2021.
What Could Test DIA’s Rally Next
My view of DIA is conservative after this rally. Its structure concentrates risk in a few high-priced stocks, while RSP spreads its exposure equally across the S&P 500. Riding a relief move like this one is fine. Just make sure you plan the exit, which is the whole argument in our free handbook on market tops, available here.
DIA holds $45.06 billion in assets spread across 30 stocks, and each stock’s weight depends on its share price, so a few expensive names largely decide your return. RSP gives every S&P 500 company the same weight, and it was the fund that hit a record close in this rally.
The relief rally rests on factors that can reverse quickly. Trump could change his position, oil could rebound, or the November 6 jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET could let down.
If the Dow closes above its 54,349.12 record while RSP stays above $223.33, this conservative view is wrong. If WTI climbs back above $100 before the Dow reaches that record, the November 4 rally was a one-time relief bounce, and the Dow remains below its high.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
