Live Live update #9

AMD’s Bull vs Bear Case Ahead of Q3 Earnings

From live coverage: Live: Will AMD Crush Q3 Earnings Tonight After a 4% Intraday Pop?
AMD
AMD

Thesis check


intact$483.90 +3.7% today
“AMD is the credible second source for AI accelerators as hyperscaler capex keeps climbing”

Bull case
  • Q2 2026 cleared both lines, EPS $1.66 against $1.61 and revenue $11.54B against $11.30B
  • operating margin up from 10.6% in Q3 2024 to 17.3% in Q2 2026
  • Helios rack shipments were guided to begin this quarter
  • Polymarket traders put a beat at 62%, up six points this week
Bear case
  • stock down roughly 23% over the past month and below its $548.78 50-day average
  • low-margin Helios racks could dilute the mix even on a revenue beat
  • 1.14 put/call ratio with 153.7% implied volatility at the $470 strike
  • Broadcom's below-expectations AI forecast showed how fast the second-source narrative can crack

The thesis now rides entirely on tonight's Helios commentary, since shipments were supposed to start this quarter. A beat on the $13.08 billion estimate with gross margin holding above 53% strengthens it; a Helios slip or rack-driven margin dilution flips it to weakening in one headline.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

AMD Q3 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of AMD’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!

AMD Jumps 4% After Earnings Beat - Can the Rally Continue?

Thomas Richmond
THE SETUP
4:15pm ET

AMD management has cleared the EPS line in seven of the last eight quarters, with the only miss a 0.54% shortfall in Q2 2025, so tonight's $1.94 consensus is a bar this team usually clears. The beats have also been getting bigger, topping out at 16% in Q4 2025, which puts the after-hours reaction largely on the Helios commentary alongside the headline number.

AMD's Q3 Earnings at a Glance

Thomas Richmond
AMD
AMD

Q3 2026

4:16pm ET

EPS
$2.09
est $1.94
+7.9%

Revenue
$13.38B
est $13.08B
+2.2%

Data Center revenue nearly doubled to $8.55 billion as the Instinct MI450 ramp kicked in, and management guided Q4 revenue to roughly $17 billion. That acceleration is what moves the stock tonight.

AMD's Q3 Earnings Are Out - Stock Jumps 6% on Strong Results and Guidance

Thomas Richmond

AMD just reported Q3 earnings, with shares initially up 6% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $13.38B vs. $13.09B expected 🟢
  • Adjusted EPS: $2.09 vs. $1.95 expected 🟢
  • Gross Margin: 54%
  • Adjusted Operating Margin: 29% vs. 28% expected 🟢
  • Adjusted Net Income: $3.47B vs. $3.21B expected 🟢
  • Capex: $648M vs. $647M expected

Q4 Guidance:

  • Revenue: $17B vs. $16.23B expected 🟢

Quick Read:

  • Strong earnings beat: AMD topped revenue and EPS expectations, with adjusted EPS beating estimates by 7.2%.
  • Bullish outlook: Q4 revenue guidance came in nearly $770 million above expectations, signaling continued growth momentum.

The One Number That Could Decide AMD Stock's Reaction Tonight

Thomas Richmond
AMD
AMD

Margin story · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026

3:15pm ET

Gross
53.8%+14.0pp YoY
Operating
17.3%+19.0pp YoY
Net
19.9%+8.6pp YoY

Operating margin has climbed from 10.6% in Q3 2024 to 17.3% in Q2 2026, so tonight's number is the real test: low-margin Helios rack shipments starting this quarter could dilute that mix even if revenue clears the $13.08 billion estimate. Gross margin above 53% is the line to watch.

Operating margin by quarter

18.8%7.80%-3.22%

Top Hedge Funds Betting Big on AMD Now

Thomas Richmond
AMD
AMD

Tracked 13F positioning

3:10pm ET

$11Bacross 22 tracked filers
11 added · 8 trimmed · 5 new · 1 exited

  • Marshall Wace LLP

    $2.3B—

  • D. E. Shaw & Co Inc

    $1.8B-0.2%

  • Two Sigma Investments LLC

    $880M+0.1%

  • Whale Rock Capital Management LLC

    $877M+21%

  • ARK Investment Management LLC

    $823M-0.5%

  • Point72 Asset Management LP

    $772M-0.1%

  • Maverick Capital Ltd

    $567M+0.4%

  • SRS Investment Management LLC

    $504M-0.4%

+ 15 more tracked holders

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Among 22 institutional filers, 11 added to AMD and 8 trimmed as of the June 30 disclosures, with five fresh positions and just one full exit, so institutional money leaned in ahead of tonight. Whale Rock Capital Management was the standout, lifting its stake roughly 21% in a position now worth about $877 million. Those filings are about 45 days stale and predate the 22.65% monthly slide flagged earlier today.

AMD's Technical Setup Ahead of Q3 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
AMD
AMD

Technical setup

3:00pm ET

Support & resistance · chart through Tue, Nov 3
  • R2$579.37+19.2%
  • R1$559.90+15.2%
  • Now$485.93
  • S1$461.71-5.0%
  • S2$438.87-9.7%
50-day avg
$548.78-11.5% below
200-day avg
$412.96+17.7% above
52-week range
$188.22 – $658.52

AMD goes into tonight's report trading below its 50-day average of $548.78, so the $461.71 support shelf is the line that matters most on a disappointing AI outlook. Reclaiming $559.90 resistance would take the stock back above that 50-day line, while the 200-day sits far below at $412.96.

Polymarket: 62% Chance AMD Beats Q3 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
AMD
AMD

Prediction markets

2:40pm ET

Will AMD (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?
62%Yes+6pp this week
Polymarket · $2k traded · resolves Tue, Nov 3

Polymarket traders have raised the implied probability of an AMD earnings beat into tonight's report, a six-point swing that contrasts with the stock's 23% slide over the past month flagged earlier this afternoon. Volume is thin, so the move reflects sentiment, and participants are positioned for management to meet expectations on AI revenue.

Yes probability

89.6%81.8%73.9%

AMD Traders Are Slightly Bearish Tonight With a 1.14 Put/Call Ratio

Thomas Richmond
AMD
AMD

Options positioning

2:35pm ET

Put/call 1.14Puts dominant
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
153.7%
Expiry
Wed, Nov 4chain as of Mon, Nov 2

Tomorrow's expiry carries a 1.14 put/call ratio with 153.7% implied volatility at the $470 strike, where puts outnumber calls 310 to 26. Read directly, that is traders paying up for downside protection into tonight's report. Read the other way, positioning that lopsided is often where squeezes start when the numbers land clean.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $462.5

    65 / 28

  • $465

    123 / 30

  • $467.5

    55 / 21

  • $470

    310 / 26

  • $472.5

    88 / 38

  • $475

    204 / 80

What Happened Last Quarter for AMD

Thomas Richmond
AMD
AMD

Last quarter — Q2 2026

2:30pm ET

EPS
$1.66vs $1.61 est +3.1%
Revenue
$11.54Bvs $11.30B est +2.0%

AMD's June quarter cleared both lines even with data center GPU momentum still ramping, which is why tonight's bar sits on the AI outlook. With the stock down roughly 23% in the past month, management's commentary on Helios rack shipments and Instinct demand carries the weight.

next print Tue, Nov 3

Analysts' Top Questions for AMD Ahead of Q3 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
AMD
AMD

Call preview · Q3 2026

2:25pm ET

Tue, Nov 3
Earnings call · after close

Analysts have pressed management on the Helios and Instinct GPU roadmap on all four of the last calls, and tonight is the one where shipments were supposed to start. With gross margin and product mix plus memory inflation also raised every quarter, the after-hours move likely hinges on whether the AI ramp arrives without margin damage.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
  • Data Center CPU-GPU mix
  • Server CPU and Agentic AI
  • Helios and Instinct GPU roadmap
  • Gross margin and product mix
  • OpenAI and large customer deals
  • Supply chain and memory inflation

AMD Plunged 23% in the Past Month. Will Q3 Earnings Tonight Spark a Rally?

Thomas Richmond

AMD reports earnings tonight following a brutal 22.65% decline over the past month, putting enormous pressure on management to deliver an encouraging outlook for its AI business.

Wall Street expects $13.08 billion in revenue, slightly above the midpoint of AMD’s own guidance. Here are the key catalysts to watch:

  • Revenue Estimate: $13.08 billion
  • Helios AI Rack Shipments: Expected to begin this quarter
  • 2027 Data Center Outlook: Revenue expected to more than double
  • Long-Term EPS Target: Above $20

AMD trades at roughly 176x trailing earnings, leaving little room for disappointment if its ambitious AI growth targets slip.

The launch of its Helios rack-scale AI systems could be a major catalyst. Investors will be watching closely for shipment timelines, customer demand, and management’s confidence in its 2027 growth trajectory.

Bottom Line: A successful Helios ramp and strong 2027 guidance could help reverse AMD’s recent selloff, while any delays could put additional pressure on shares.

View the full live blog (13 updates) →