Moderna Climbs 5% Ahead of Earnings, Pfizer Eases Despite Raised Outlook, Merck Slides 2% Amid New Phase 3 Trial
Moderna surges on pre-earnings momentum, Pfizer dips after beating estimates and raising guidance, and Merck drops despite launching a new trial. When stock prices and headlines point in opposite directions across the sector, something beneath the surface deserves a closer…
Three of the biggest names in pharma and vaccines are trading against their own headlines. Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA | MRNA Price Prediction) stock is at $231.52, up 5% in afternoon trading, as the messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine maker heads toward its next earnings report. This builds on a rally that has the stock up 685% year to date (YTD).
Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) stock is at $30.44, down 0.8%, even after the drugmaker topped revenue estimates and raised its 2026 outlook. Merck (NYSE:MRK) stock is at $144.84, down 2%, on the same day the company launched a new Phase 3 trial. In all three cases, the headlines and the price action don’t line up neatly.
Moderna Stretches a Massive YTD Rally Into Its Earnings Report
Moderna’s latest climb comes as the company heads toward its upcoming quarterly results, and a rally of this size tends to draw momentum buyers, which can extend a move into a scheduled report.
Its most recent quarterly results, covering Q2 2026, arrived on July 31. The company’s revenue came in at $145 million, up 2.1% year over year (YoY), while its net loss narrowed to $782 million from $825 million a year earlier. Such a small revenue base, set against a share price that has multiplied this year, puts heavy weight on the next report.
Pfizer Slips Even After a Beat-and-Raise Quarter
Pfizer posted Q3 2026 revenue of $16.6 billion on November 3, down 0.4% YoY. The result topped the $15.9 billion consensus estimate from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Pfizer raised its full-year revenue guidance to $62 billion to $64 billion from $60.5 billion to $62.5 billion. It also lifted its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) outlook to $2.95 to $3.05 from $2.80 to $3.
Inside the quarter, Pfizer’s COVID products kept shrinking, with Comirnaty sales down 29% and Paxlovid revenue down 63% YoY. Eliquis revenue rose 25% and Padcev sales jumped 55%, giving Pfizer newer engines to offset the COVID decline. CEO Albert Bourla said Pfizer had “another strong quarter with commercial momentum and disciplined execution.”
The muted reaction may reflect how far Pfizer stock had already moved, as it’s now up 29% YTD. Profit taking after a strong run might be one factor behind the pullback.
Merck Falls as It Opens a New Phase 3 COPD Study
On November 3, Merck disclosed that it initiated ENHANCE-3, a Phase 3 trial of Ohtuvayre for preventing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Merck plans to enroll approximately 2,136 patients in 28 countries. Ohtuvayre joined the company’s portfolio through the Verona Pharma acquisition and already generates sales from adults with COPD. A trial launch is an early-stage step, and any return from a new use would depend on results and regulatory review.
Even with the pullback, Merck stock is up 40% YTD. Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is another large health care name in focus. BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX), Pfizer’s partner on Comirnaty, is also in focus. Defensive health care names are trading mixed on Election Day.
How Moderna’s Business Differs From Pfizer and Merck
Moderna is a focused mRNA platform company, with approved vaccines such as Spikevax, mRESVIA and mNEXSPIKE and a pipeline that includes the cancer vaccine intismeran, developed with Merck. Sales at Moderna rise and fall with seasonal vaccine demand, and it remains unprofitable.
Both Pfizer and Merck are diversified drugmakers with deep commercial portfolios, as Pfizer spreads its business across primary care, oncology, specialty care and hospital products and pays a dividend. Merck leans on its Keytruda cancer franchise and Gardasil vaccine, with an animal health arm adding balance.
What Moderna’s Next Report Needs to Prove
The next test for Moderna is whether its upcoming report shows enough commercial progress to justify a share price that has climbed far faster than its sales. Optimistic investors can point to a pipeline spanning flu, cancer and rare disease programs. On the other side sit continued net losses, heavy cash burn and the $950 million litigation settlement Moderna paid in July.
Pfizer faces drug pricing policy and fading COVID sales, while Merck must absorb generic competition for Bridion and Januvia. A cautious approach could make sense until Moderna’s earnings data is disclosed.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
