Traders are split roughly evenly on whether AppLovin clears its quarterly EPS bar tonight, and the odds have drifted lower into the close rather than firming up with today's 10.7% rally. That hesitation lines up with the options chain, where hedges sit roughly even with upside positioning.
Friday's options are priced for an outsized move, with at-the-money implied volatility at 243.4% on the 252.5 strike and the heaviest open interest by far sitting in the 250 puts. A 0.94 put/call ratio says hedges are stacked roughly even with upside positioning going into tonight, which reads as defensive, though crowded put walls just as often become the fuel for a squeeze if the numbers land well.
Q2 showed growth decelerating just enough to matter: earnings essentially met expectations while revenue came up short, and the stock has shed most of its 2026 gains since. That puts the burden on tonight's numbers to prove the advertising engine still compounds, especially with Unity pressing harder in mobile ad monetization.
next print Wed, Nov 4
Analysts have pressed management on e-commerce and consumer vertical expansion and on Axon model breakthroughs in all four of the last calls, and that self-service onboarding ramp is the thread most likely to decide tonight's reaction. After today's 10.7% run-up flagged earlier this afternoon, the commentary on conversion and funnel friction matters more than the headline numbers.
A 10.71% jump to $271.82 adds roughly $8 billion to this $83.1 billion ad-tech name in a single session, one of its biggest one-day moves of the year. No confirmed catalyst in the data yet, so keep an eye on whether the gain holds into the close.
AppLovin heads into tonight’s earnings report with shares down a staggering 59.33% year to date, as investors question whether the company’s explosive growth can continue.
Management expects revenue of $2.055 billion to $2.085 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.710 billion to $1.740 billion, implying margins of about 83%.
Despite the massive selloff, analysts maintain an average price target of $448.43, while shares trade at roughly 18x trailing earnings.
What to Watch Tonight:
Bottom Line: With shares down nearly 60% this year, strong results could spark a meaningful rebound, while another disappointing quarter could intensify selling pressure.
This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.
AppLovin (NASDAQ:APP | APP Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results at 4:05 PM ET today, with the earnings call scheduled for 5:00 PM ET. In August, management said growth was reaccelerating, so tonight’s numbers will show whether that’s holding up.
In Q2, revenue rose 52.8% to $1.92B but missed the $1.94B consensus. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.61 billion also came in below guidance. CEO Adam Foroughi told analysts on the August call that “the next step-up in model performance landed just after quarter end.”
Free cash flow grew only 11.8% to $863.3M, which management put down to the timing of international tax and interest payments. Buybacks slowed to $551.3M, leaving about $1.8 billion authorized. Shares fell 19.66% on earnings day. They now trade at $274.06 after rising 11.63% today.
| Metric | Q3 2026 Estimate | YoY Change | FY 2026 Estimate | FY 2027 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.07B | +47.1% | $8.07B | $10.08B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $4.0337 | +64.6% | $15.6069 | $19.6136 |
Consensus revenue sits near the center of guidance. Management’s range means 7% to 8% sequential growth. Analysts have cut their longer-range numbers: FY 2027 EPS fell from $21.1644 to $19.6136 over 90 days.
Here are some of the top items to watch in AppLovin’s Q3 earnings report tonight:
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Earnings-Day Move | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | +0.14% | -19.66% | +3.32% | -6.85% | -7.05% |
| Q1 2026 | +2.96% | +6.41% | -6.08% | -2.75% | +4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | +10.05% | -19.68% | +6.44% | +14.11% | +25.12% |
| Q3 2025 | +2.57% | +0.7% | -0.23% | -10.49% | +16.62% |
On average, shares changed -1.5% seven days following earnings over the past year.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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