McDonald’s Rises 5% as Earnings Beat Outweighs U.S. Sales Dip; Chipotle Climbs 4%, Starbucks Gains 3%

A quarter that missed on sales is lifting restaurant stocks. McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD | MCD Price Prediction) stock is at $275.24 in morning trading, up 5%. The gain comes even though the burger chain posted its first U.S. same-store sales decline since early 2025.

Restaurant stocks are rising alongside McDonald’s, and the group is beating the broad market. Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM), which owns KFC and Taco Bell, is also trading higher.

McDonald’s Q3 Beat Comes With a U.S. Sales Dip

McDonald’s released its Q3 2026 results before the open on November 4. McDonald’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.57, exceeding the $3.38 analysts expected, per the Associated Press. That adjusted figure leaves out $56 million in pre-tax restructuring charges tied to the company’s Accelerating the Organization initiative. Revenue was $7.16 billion, missing the $7.28 billion Wall Street expected, per the Associated Press.

McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales fell 0.2%, a smaller drop than the 0.5% decline Wall Street had forecast, per the Associated Press. Chief Executive Chris Kempczinski pointed to momentum building late in the period. “In the U.S., we’re encouraged by improvement as the quarter progressed following our intervention on value,” he said. Alongside the results, McDonald’s raised its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.93 per share.

Fast Food Traffic Slump Sets a Low Bar for McDonald’s

Industry data helps explain the reaction. Foot traffic across the U.S. fast food sector fell 2.6% in the third quarter, according to Revenue Management Solutions figures. Against that slump, McDonald’s held its U.S. decline to a fraction of a percent, and investors seem to be rewarding a result that was less bad than feared.

Global comparable sales at McDonald’s rose 1.5%, led by Japan in its developmental licensed markets and by Germany and Australia in its operated markets. France and China posted declines, so the international picture isn’t strong everywhere.

Chipotle and Starbucks Ride the Restaurant Rally

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) stock is trading at $34.60, up 4% and barely trailing McDonald’s stock. The burrito chain appears to be moving with the broader restaurant group.

Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) stock is at $107.69, up 3%. The coffee chain stock’s advance is the smallest of the three featured restaurant names, though it’s still outperforming the major market benchmarks.

Broad benchmarks are also climbing, at a slower pace than the restaurant names, with the Dow holding a narrow lead. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) is up 1.99%, inching past the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) at 1.89%. Trailing both, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) has gained 1.62%.

How McDonald’s Business Differs From Chipotle and Starbucks

McDonald’s operates mainly as a franchisor, with independent local owners running the vast majority of its restaurants. Rent and royalties from those franchisees drive much of the company’s revenue, which helped franchised sales grow even as company-operated sales slipped.

Chipotle takes a different path, owning and operating every restaurant in the U.S., Canada and Europe. Direct ownership ties the burrito chain’s results to restaurant-level costs such as labor and food, giving it closer operational control along with more exposure to margin swings.

Starbucks sits in between, with a mix of company-operated and licensed coffeehouses. A deal that turned Starbucks retail in China into a licensed joint venture with Boyu Capital in fiscal 2026 pushed the coffee giant further toward licensing.

McDonald’s Rally Hinges on a U.S. Traffic Turnaround

The big question for McDonald’s is whether U.S. guest counts turn positive as the value push develops. McDonald’s stock is still down 8% year to date, which leaves room for a recovery if traffic keeps improving.

For the bulls, the earnings beat, a higher dividend and a U.S. trend that improved through the quarter support the recovery case. The bears focus on a revenue shortfall, negative U.S. guest counts and restructuring charges that are still running through McDonald’s results.

Today’s gain also leaves McDonald’s stock open to profit taking. For investors, staying cautious could make sense while the U.S. traffic question at McDonald’s remains open.

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