Treasury Secretary Bessent Says ‘The World Can Live Without Iranian Oil’ As Trump Weighs Further Strikes

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used his X account on Saturday, Oct. 31 to argue that the oil market has already adjusted to life without Iran: “The Strait of Hormuz transit levels are back to pre-conflict levels minus Iranian barrels. The world can live without Iranian oil. Iran cannot live without oil exports.”

That is Bessent’s view of the market, and he posted it at a tense moment. Reports on whether the U.S. has already carried out renewed strikes on Iran, and whether further strikes are coming, were mixed as of Nov. 3. For investors and drivers, what happens next will show up in crude prices and at the pump.

Conflicting Strike and Peace Headlines Hit on Nov. 3

Here is what major outlets reported in their headlines on Nov. 3:

• The Wall Street Journal reported in an exclusive that the U.S. struck Iran’s Qeshm Island as Trump talked down war risks. OilPrice.com reported oil prices bounced back following reports of U.S. strikes on Iran.
• CBS News reported Iran played down hope for a deal to end the war after new U.S. strikes on the eve of the midterm elections.
• Reuters reported on the evening of Nov. 3 that Trump told the Financial Times the U.S. has no immediate plan to strike Iran.
• Bloomberg reported that Iran’s Khamenei has empowered talks as Trump says an Iran deal could happen.
• Al Jazeera reported Tehran warned of a “crushing response” if the U.S. attacks.
• Israeli outlet Ynetnews reported the U.S. is prepared to strike Iran as early as Wednesday.

These reports point in different directions, and the picture was unclear as of Nov. 3.

Trump’s Next Move Rests on Diplomacy or Force

Accounts of Trump’s private thinking come from unnamed officials. The Wall Street Journal reported in late September, citing U.S. officials, that Trump told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, while also reporting he was reluctant to resume major combat operations. On Oct. 8, Trump posted that the U.S. “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” Axios later reported, citing unnamed sources, that Trump told Benjamin Netanyahu he wanted to give diplomacy more time.

Marco Rubio, identified by CBS News as secretary of state, said on Oct. 31: “We can achieve military objectives if we seek to. He hasn’t made a decision. I have no announcement in that regard with you today, and nor do we take any of it lightly.” Trump told Right Side Broadcasting Network on Nov. 1: “Either they’ll make a deal, or we’ll just end it.”

Bessent’s post fits Treasury’s sanctions campaign, Operation Economic Outcast. He wrote on Oct. 23 that Treasury had “decimated every layer of Iran’s oil lifeline,” and on Oct. 28 he said “Iran is not able to get dollars, and funding for their proxies is going down.”

Oil Prices Swing as Diplomacy Hopes Rise and Fade

Crude ended October well above where it started. Per The National, Brent rose about 15% and WTI rose about 12% during the month. Bessent said in a CNBC interview on Oct. 28, “I think we are getting an energy supply shock here,” and urged the Federal Reserve to keep “an open mind in terms of the transitory nature of the supply shock.”

This week brought a sharp reversal. Quartz reported oil fell more than 4% on Monday, Nov. 2, as Iran peace talks relieved supply fears, and NBC News called it the biggest drop since July. On Nov. 3, CNBC reported prices fell for a second day on hopes for a diplomatic resolution, and Reuters reported oil dropped 7% as Iran indicated openness to talks. Bloomberg later described prices swinging amid uncertainty over the talks. Bessent’s post came before this decline, which coverage tied mainly to negotiations hopes.

Pump Prices Ease, Though Crude Still Sets a Floor

The Energy Information Administration’s weekly national average for regular gasoline was $4.15 a gallon as of Nov. 2, down $0.12 from a week earlier and $0.31 from a month earlier, according to FRED data. AAA’s daily national average, a different measure, was $4.1694 as of Nov. 2. AAA said on Oct. 29: “Crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, however, are limiting further declines at the pump.”

Two Scenarios That Could Reset Oil and Gas Prices

In one scenario, talks produce a deal, relieved supply fears and the risk premium in crude, which could give gasoline prices room to keep falling. In the other, further strikes renew supply concerns, which could reverse this week’s oil decline and delay relief at the pump. Over the coming days, track official statements from Washington and Tehran, the Ynetnews report of possible action as early as Wednesday, and the EIA’s next weekly gas price reading.

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