Ford’s Dividend Is Down 50% From 2025’s First Payout. Will the Bonus Return?
Ford's February bonus payout vanished this year, yet cash flow looks strong enough to fund the regular dividend several times over. What would the board need to see before it brings the extra check back for income investors?
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Ford (NYSE:F | F Price Prediction) declared its fourth-quarter regular dividend of $0.15 on Oct 28. The stock goes ex-dividend on Nov 10, and the payment is paid on Dec 1. That keeps the regular payout intact even though trailing GAAP EPS is -$1.98. The February bonus is gone, though. Ford’s first-quarter payment was $0.33 in 2024 and $0.30 in 2025. In 2026, it was $0.15.
In early 2024, Ford said it declared “a first-quarter regular dividend of 15 cents per share and a supplemental dividend of 18 cents per share.” News coverage at the time tied that bonus to “strong free cash flow.” Whether the bonus returns depends on free cash flow.
Free Cash Flow Is the Lens That Matters
Most of the trailing loss comes from special charges. Ford’s fourth-quarter 2025 results took $15.5 billion of pre-tax special items, including a $10.7 billion Model e impairment and EV cancellation charge. Third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.49 beat the $0.40 consensus. The CFO, Sherry House, described the cash position:
“We also generated $4.7 billion in company adjusted free cash flow in Q3 and ended the quarter with $25.3 billion in cash and $46.4 billion in total liquidity, maintaining our commitment to a strong investment-grade rating and to returning capital to shareholders.”
Guidance Covers the Regular Dividend Nearly 3 Times
Ford confirmed its full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance of $6 billion to $7 billion. The company has about 3.92 billion shares outstanding, so four regular payments cost roughly $2.35 billion a year. The guidance range covers that 2.6 to 3.0 times. The stock yields 6.01%.
GM Favors Buybacks While Stellantis Pays Nothing
General Motors (NYSE:GM) raised its quarterly dividend 20% to $0.18 and approved a new $20 billion buyback authorization. When GM reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, it forecast adjusted automotive free cash flow of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, yet its yield is under 1%. Its CEO, Mary Barra, said then:
“We believe that formula is sustainable, which is why we’re increasing our dividend and planning future share repurchases.”
Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) is at the other end of the spectrum. Its board suspended the 2026 dividend after $25.41 billion in unusual charges and, at the time, expected positive industrial free cash flow to return in 2027. Ford is between the two: a generous base payout plus $311 million of buybacks in the first half.
What Has to Go Right Before February
Management never mentioned a supplemental dividend on the third-quarter call. Jim Farley’s outlook for 2027 helps explain why:
“At this point, we’re targeting profitability next year to be roughly in line with this year, with an even stronger automotive business that enables us to invest in our future.”
Farley expects about $2 billion of commodity, memory, and logistics pressures in 2027. Model E is set to lose about $4 billion this year, and management expects its expenses to rise next year. Tariffs and the auto cycle add more risk, and guidance does not include “a significant escalation in the Middle East or a material downturn in the U.S. economy.”
For the supplemental to come back, Ford likely needs to finish the year near the top of its cash flow guidance and lay out a 2027 plan that leaves cash to spare. Until the board acts, any talk of a special dividend is speculation. The decision would most likely come with fourth-quarter results in February.
Bottom Line for Income Investors
Shares trade at $12.40, down 2.25% year to date. Cash flow easily covers the regular dividend. A February bonus looks unlikely with 2027 spending ahead. A conservative read values Ford on the $0.15 regular payout alone and treats any supplemental payments as upside.
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Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
