Lowe’s Just Paid Another Dividend. Its 64-Year Streak Is the Real Story
Housing is stalling, guidance is shrinking, and buybacks have gone quiet. Yet one line item at Lowe's keeps climbing, and the size of next spring's raise could reveal how worried management really is.
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Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW | LOW Price Prediction) paid shareholders $1.25 per share on November 4, 2026. That quarterly check says more about management’s priorities than any comp sales figure this year.
Quarterly Dividend Per Share Is the Number to Track
The metric is Lowe’s quarterly cash dividend per share. The board raised it to $1.25 from $1.20 with the May 29, 2026 declaration. That’s a 4.2% raise and an annualized rate of $5.00.
Why This Payout Reveals Management’s Confidence
Revenue and earnings swing with housing and weather. The dividend is a choice. This board raised the payout in the same year it narrowed guidance to the low end of its ranges, which suggests it believes in its cash generation through the cycle. Management called Lowe’s a “dividend aristocrat” on its second-quarter call. The payment record backs that up: the quarterly rate rose every year from 2010 through 2026, with no annual cut in that span.
Coverage is comfortable. The $5.00 annualized payout comes to about 41% of the around $12.25 in adjusted EPS guided for fiscal 2026. In fiscal 2025, Lowe’s generated $9.86 billion in operating cash flow against $2.21 billion of capex, leaving about $7.65 billion in free cash flow. The $2.6 billion paid in dividends used up around 34% of that. Second-quarter adjusted EPS of $4.40 beat the $4.22 estimate.
Raises Are Shrinking as Buybacks Vanish
The quarterly rate jumped from $0.80 to $1.05 in 2022. Since then, the raises have been a regular nickel a year: $1.10 in 2023, $1.15 in 2024, $1.20 in 2025, and $1.25 in 2026, each declared in late spring. That totals 13.6% over three raises.
Buybacks have nearly disappeared. Lowe’s bought back just $30 million of stock in fiscal 2025 and $363 million in the first quarter of 2026, then none in the second. Adjusted debt to EBITDA stands at 3.0 times, and management expects to reach its 2.75 times target in mid-2027 following the FBM and ADG acquisitions. Until then, the dividend is the main way cash goes back to shareholders. Second-quarter dividends totaled $673 million.
Housing Headwinds Could Shape the Next Raise
The background is soft. Existing home sales ran at a 3.99 million annualized pace in September, and housing starts fell 5.2% to 1.22 million. Management said “discretionary DIY demand remains under pressure” and guided third-quarter adjusted EPS about 7% below last year. Full-year comp sales are guided flat.
A bullish signal next spring would be a raise bigger than a nickel, followed by buybacks coming back once leverage hits target. A bearish signal would be another minimal raise while the payout ratio rises toward half of earnings. Shares trade at $227.32. That is up 27.45% over the past month but down 3.68% year to date, for a yield near 2.05%.
Verdict for Income Investors
The $1.25 quarterly payout is well covered and now accounts for almost all of Lowe’s capital return. It matters more than flat comps because it shows management can keep paying shareholders more while the housing market stalls.
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Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
