Opendoor Plunges 21% After Q3 Miss and Soft Revenue Guidance; Zillow Group Slides 2%, Rocket Companies Holds Steady

A surge in home buying ran into with a stalled resale market at Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ:OPEN), and Wall Street isn’t forgiving the mismatch. Opendoor stock trades at $1.42, down 21%. That leaves the stock down 76% year to date (YTD).

Q3 2026 results from Opendoor arrived after the close on November 5. The shares traded at $1.78 right after the release, little changed from the close. Sellers took over once regular trading opened, as revenue, per-share results and guidance all came up short.

Opendoor Misses on Revenue, Earnings and Guidance

Revenue at Opendoor reached $1.02 billion, up 11.7% year over year, but missed the $1.07 billion S&P analysts’ consensus. Opendoor’s GAAP loss of $0.23 per share also trailed the $0.17 loss expected by analysts. That GAAP loss included $96 million of stock-based compensation tied to market-condition restricted stock units and a $53 million inventory valuation adjustment. On an adjusted basis, the company’s net loss was $66 million.

For Q4 2026, Opendoor guided to revenue of $1.03 billion, below the $1.11 billion expected by analysts cited by StockStory. The company’s forecast for an adjusted EBITDA loss of $70 million to $85 million came in wider than the $16.66 million loss analysts had expected. CEO Kaz Nejatian acknowledged the company is behind its goal of positive adjusted net income by year-end, telling analysts, “We are a bit behind on this today.”

Buying volume was the bright spot. Nejatian stated in the company’s earnings release, “We more than quadrupled homes purchased year-over-year.” Purchases at Opendoor reached 4,865 homes against 2,728 homes sold, and inventory ballooned to $2.57 billion. Cash spent on those homes drove the company’s free cash flow to negative $836 million from a positive $432 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, the company’s operating margin worsened to -18.3% from -7.4%.

What the Peer Group Says About Opendoor

Housing-linked names are moving far less than Opendoor. Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z | Z Price Prediction) stock is at $29.64, down 2%. Rocket Companies (NYSE:RKT) stock is at $14.84, up 0.1%. Those modest moves mark Opendoor’s slide as a company-specific selloff.

Rates add a broader drag for the group. the 10-year Treasury yield rose after a blowout October jobs report, which could keep mortgage rates elevated and housing activity slow. For a company like Opendoor that must resell every home it buys, slower activity can mean longer holding periods and deeper price cuts.

How Opendoor’s Model Differs From Zillow and Rocket Companies

Opendoor buys homes directly from sellers, repairs them and resells them, financing that inventory largely with asset-backed debt, which amplifies a housing slowdown because the company carries holding costs and price risk until each home sells. Management is pushing capital-light options such as Cash Now, More Later and List with Opendoor to shift some of that risk to sellers.

Zillow runs an asset-light marketplace that makes money from advertising, agent connections, rentals, software and mortgage origination without owning homes, and rentals give the company a buffer when high mortgage rates push would-be buyers toward leasing.

Rocket Companies originates and services mortgages and also owns the Redfin brokerage, which feeds purchase and refinance leads into its lending business. Higher rates can lift the value of that servicing book, an offset Opendoor’s inventory-heavy approach lacks.

Opendoor’s Inventory Cleanup Faces Its Next Test

The next test for Opendoor is whether the company can keep Q4 losses inside its adjusted EBITDA guidance range. Management at Opendoor expects its contribution margin to decline again in Q4 as spring-bought homes sell into a weak market. Turning the inventory build into sales without another heavy round of cash burn could matter more than any single quarter’s margin.

Opendoor’s bull case rests on $910 million in cash at the end of Q3, falling operating costs per acquired home and fast-growing mortgage originations. The bears focus on $2,016 million in current asset-backed debt, possible dilution from convertible notes and a resale market that management warns can shift quickly. Investors may want to stay cautious while Opendoor’s inventory cleanup plays out.

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