The Investor Who Bought Intel at the End of June Is Down $597 on Every $1,000 After Its Worst Day Since 1974

Someone who put $1,000 into Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) at the June 30 month-end close of $139.63 now has $403. That close was the stock’s highest month-end close on record going back to late 2003. Shares finished at $56.28 on Nov. 6, a -59.69% move that works out to a $597 loss on every $1,000.

AI Server Demand Fueled a Run That Topped Out in June

Intel spent 2026 in the middle of a rebuild under CEO Lip-Bu Tan. He cut the workforce, removed management layers, and pushed the company’s 18A chipmaking process into high-volume production.

Demand for AI-linked server CPUs made data center sales the growth engine. That segment’s Q3 revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion, its fastest growth in 15 years. Around its earnings reports, the stock went from $48.26 in January to $67.32 in April and $103.79 in July.

Beating Estimates Still Led to a 28.58% Collapse

Q3 non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.52, beating the $0.3953 estimate. The Q4 forecast weighed on the stock. Intel guided to $15.0 to $16.0 billion in revenue and $0.25 in EPS, citing a PC slowdown driven by memory costs and a shutdown at its Israel factory.

On October 30, the stock fell 28.58% to $65.76, its worst day since 1974. It then rose 7.71% on Nov. 6. Intel had already suspended its dividend in August 2024 and made its last payment on September 1, 2024, so June buyers have had no income to cushion the fall.

Longer Holders Are Ahead but Still Trail the S&P 500

1-Year Return

• Current Value: $1,511.30 (51.13%)
• S&P 500: $1,096.90 (9.69%)

5-Year Return

• Current Value: $1,192.20 (19.22%)
• Annualized Return: 3.58%
• S&P 500: $1,569.40 (56.94%)

10-Year Return

• Current Value: $1,983.50 (98.35%)
• Annualized Return: 7.09%
• S&P 500: $3,434.20 (243.42%)

The gain largely depends on the entry date. A buyer from last November still beat the index by a wide margin, while buyers from five and a decade ago trailed it. The past year included a low of $32.89 and a high of $142.35.

What Would Change the Case for Intel From Here

A stronger case for Intel would emerge if server CPU supply catches up with demand and the foundry business, which lost $1.85 billion in Q3, wins outside customers. That case weakens if the PC slump runs through 2027 while spending rises. The CFO already said of next year, “I don’t think that this will be a year in which we see positive cash flow.”

The stock trades at about 33x forward earnings. Of the analysts covering it, 35 rate it Hold, against 13 Buy or Strong Buy ratings. Their average target is $91.12.

Proof of outside foundry customers remains a key open question. June buyers paid near the stock’s peak, and the stock fell sharply after guidance came in below expectations.

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