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Eli Lilly May Have Just Found a New $23 Billion Market for Its GLP-1 Pill

Lilly's GLP-1 pill just landed a surprising new indication, and Wall Street's average target still sits far below the boldest call. Can a $1.22 trillion giant really deliver another outsized year, and what has to go right?

By Rich Duprey
Published November 9, 2026, 11:32am ET · 2 min read

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A bright outdoor shot of the Eli Lilly Corporate Center sign. The sign features the large, red, script 'Lilly' logo prominently, with 'Corporate Center' in black text below it on a white background. To the right of the main sign are red panels displaying white scientific molecular structures and the Greek letter 'eta'. Lush green grass, small purple and white flowers, and yellow daffodils are in the foreground, while a modern, light-colored building is visible in the background under a clear sky.
The Eli Lilly Corporate Center, seen here, is home to a company that has transformed into a trillion-dollar pharmaceutical powerhouse over the past decade. © jetcityimage / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) just gave its newest drug a second act. Foundayo, which CEO David Ricks calls “the only approved GLP-1 pill that can be taken any time of day, without food and water restrictions,” significantly improved obstructive sleep apnea severity in the Phase 3 ATTAIN-OSA trial, with a U.S. FDA submission planned by the end of 2026. Foundayo sales already rose from $98 million in Q2 to $184 million in Q3.

Shares are up 28.29% year-to-date and 47.28% over the past year. Ricks put it simply: “We are in the middle of the largest new category expansion in the history of the pharmaceutical industry, and Lilly is leading that.” Lilly needs a 31% gain to hit $1,800 per share in 2027.

LLY price target

Wall Street’s Average Target Lags Its Most Bullish Call

The consensus target of $1,453.40 implies only about 6% upside from $1,372. The high end is moving, though. Jefferies raised its target to $1,700 from $1,610, a Street-high, citing larger-than-expected international obesity market potential.

LLY analyst ratings

Analysts expect 2027 EPS of $50.1525, up from $35.3522 in 2026, about 42% growth. Ninety days ago, that 2027 figure was $45.0802.

Can Eli Lilly Really Hit $1,800? Here’s the Math

At $1,372, Lilly trades at 27x 2027 earnings. At $1,800, that multiple would be 36x, above the S&P 500’s 21-23x. That premium is justified for earnings growing near 42%, and Lilly has beaten estimates for five consecutive quarters, including Q3 EPS of $7.48 versus $6.67 expected.

LLY earnings explorer

What Could Push Eli Lilly to $1,800?

  • Foundayo in diabetes: Lilly expects regulatory action in type 2 diabetes in Q4, and Ricks noted “roughly half the volume of GLP-1s is in diabetes.”
  • Global rollout: Foundayo is under review in more than 40 additional countries, with a broad launch targeted for 2027.
  • Retatrutide: A BLA submission is planned for Q1 2027 after it delivered 20% to 21% weight loss versus 9.4% for semaglutide.
  • Medicare access: The Bridge Program opened obesity coverage to approximately 20 million seniors.
  • Untapped demand: The CFO said Lilly reaches “one out of 10 patients” in the U.S.

Eli Lilly Has Topped 31% in Each of the Past Five Years

The 31% gain needed for $1,800 is routine by recent standards. Lilly returned 66.1% in 2021, 34.2% in 2022, 60.9% in 2023, 33.3% in 2024 and 40.2% in 2025. At a $1.22 trillion market cap, each gain demands more absolute dollars, but the run shows consistent compounding.

LLY price scenario

$1,800 Is a Stretch, but the Blueprint Is Clear

Reaching $1,800 requires a 31% gain in 2027. Rising estimates, a beat run and new Foundayo indications support the case. Hurdles include a 15% decline in realized prices and approximately $2 billion of 2026 one-time items that won’t repeat. Lilly will issue 2027 guidance in January, a near-term test for the thesis. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but we’ve outlined the plan for how Eli Lilly could see outsized returns in 2027.

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Rich Duprey

After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.

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