Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) has accelerated despite its $1 trillion scale. Revenue grew 55.5% in Q1 2026, management raised full-year guidance by $2 billion, and the FDA cleared Foundayo, the first any-time-of-day oral GLP-1.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Eli Lilly is $1,365.51, implying roughly 15% upside from the current $1,186.85. We rate LLY a buy with high (90%) confidence.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $1,186.85 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $1,365.51 |
| Upside | ~15.1% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence | 90% |
Foundayo Reset the Growth Story
LLY is up 8.59% year-to-date and 50.84% over the trailing year, recovering from an April low of $903.99.
Q1 2026 delivered $19.80 billion in revenue, beating the $17.80 billion consensus, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.55 versus the $6.79 estimate. Mounjaro revenue jumped 125% to $8.66 billion and Zepbound climbed 80% to $4.16 billion.
Recent headlines mixed bullish coverage of the $6.3 billion Centessa acquisition and a $6.5 billion Houston manufacturing plant against a fresh Novo Nordisk lawsuit alleging deceptive GLP-1 comparison ads.
The Case for $1,429 and Higher
Bulls argue Foundayo unlocks an oral obesity market that injectables never fully addressed. CEO Dave Ricks noted the drug can reach “over 1 billion people around the world with obesity and related conditions” with regulatory reviews underway in over 40 countries. Early launch data showed 80% of prescriptions were new-to-class.
Retatrutide, the next-gen triple agonist, delivered up to 37 pounds of weight loss in Phase 3. Morningstar flagged LLY as positioned for “industry-leading growth”. Our bull-case scenario carries the stock to $1,429.03, roughly 12.5% above current levels.
What Could Go Wrong
Pricing pressures loom. Q1 realized prices fell 13%, offsetting a 65% volume gain, and Mounjaro’s inclusion on China’s National Reimbursed Drug List will pressure international prices. Novo Nordisk’s false-advertising lawsuit and emerging generic semaglutide competition add legal and competitive headwinds.
Q1 carried $584 million in IPR&D charges plus $279 million in litigation and restructuring. Most charges reflect deliberate M&A spend (Centessa, Orna, Kelonia, Ajax) that expands the pipeline. Our bear scenario prices LLY at $1,123.10, an 11.6% drawdown.
How Eli Lilly Compares to Merck and Novo Nordisk
Merck (NYSE:MRK) is the value counterpoint. Merck guided FY2026 revenue of $65.8 billion to $67 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $5.04 to $5.16, with Q1 growth of just 4.87%. That is a fraction of Lilly’s 55.5% pace, explaining why Lilly commands a forward P/E of 33x while Merck trades at mid-teens multiples. Growth still wins.
Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) is the direct GLP-1 rival. Novo’s Q1 underlying adjusted sales fell 4% at constant currency, and management guided full-year growth to -4% to -12% CER after slashing Wegovy list prices by roughly 50% effective January 2027. Against that peer set, our LLY target looks reasonable.
Eli Lilly Price Prediction 2026-2030
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,365.51 reflects a buy rating with 90% confidence. Foundayo converts a large injectable-averse population into addressable demand.
The setup looks constructive if the Foundayo launch tracks to plan into Q3, and more cautious if realized prices deteriorate past mid-teens headwinds. Growth of this quality at this scale is rare.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,365.51 |
| 2027 | $1,470 |
| 2028 | $1,565 |
| 2029 | $1,640 |
| 2030 | $1,711.70 |
These projections assume Lilly executes on Foundayo, retatrutide, and pipeline acquisitions. Significant upside or downside could result from GLP-1 pricing regulation, Novo Nordisk competition, or acceleration of oral obesity adoption globally.
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