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Investors Are Chasing AI Chips. This Company Is Playing a Different Game

Arm skips the accelerator race and takes a cut of every chip its partners ship, yet its shares just lost a third of their value in a month. Is the sell-off a trap or an opening?

By Vandita Jadeja
Published November 9, 2026, 9:33am ET · 3 min read

Price Targets desk. Editor: Vandita Jadeja.

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A blonde woman in a white lab coat and safety glasses is seated at a white desk in a bright laboratory, holding two probes to a green circuit board. On the desk are various electronic components, an oscilloscope displaying blue waveforms, and a digital power supply. The background shows blue cabinets and green plants.
An engineer meticulously tests a circuit board, representing the detailed work behind the advanced technologies powering companies like Semtech and their data center solutions. © scanrail / Getty Images

Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM | ARM Price Prediction) closed at $202.49, and our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $221.48 implies 9.38% upside over 12 months. The model rates the stock a buy with high confidence.

ARM price target

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Metric Value
Current Price $202.49
24/7 Wall St. Price Target $221.48
Upside/Downside 9.38%
Recommendation BUY
Confidence Level 90%

Most investors chase AI through accelerator makers. Arm takes a different approach. It licenses CPU architecture and collects a royalty on every chip its partners ship, which produces a 92.48% gross margin and a net cash balance sheet.

Now it is also selling its own data-center chip, the Arm AGI CPU. A steep drop has brought the price down to a level where our model sees room to rise.

A 34% Monthly Slide Reshapes Arm’s Valuation Picture

Shares fell 10.79% over the past week, 34.26% over the past month and 27.83% over the past quarter. Even so, they remain up 84.93% year to date. Arm trades 55.27% below its $452.70 52-week high and 102.45% above its $100.02 low.

ARM price scenario

In fiscal Q1 2027, revenue came in at $1.289B (+22.4% YoY), ahead of the $1.267B consensus. GAAP EPS of $0.25 missed expectations, while non-GAAP EPS reached 45 cents. Data-center royalties more than doubled year over year.

An infographic titled 'ARM NASDAQ 12-Month Price Prediction'. The call indicates a Current Price of $202.49, a Price Target of $221.48, showing a +9.38% UPSIDE, with a 'BUY' recommendation and High Confidence (90%). A section 'HOW WE GOT THERE' shows Valuation Components: Analyst Consensus: $290.70, Forward P/E-Based Price: $146.18, and Trailing P/E-Based Price: $202.49, which lead to a Weighted Base: $200.80. 'OUR ADJUSTMENTS' are presented as a waterfall chart: Weighted Base $200.80, Technology Sector Momentum +1.15x, Analyst Consensus Contribution +0.037, Earnings Growth +0.03, Volatility Adjustment -0.059, Mega-cap Dampening 0.5, resulting in a Final Target of $221.48. The 'BULL CASE' (What Could Go Right) lists: AGI CPU demand >$2B, Data-center royalty doubling YoY, Neoverse shipments >1.5B cores, with a Target Price: $407.95. The 'BEAR CASE' (What Could Go Wrong) lists: Qualcomm litigation Q4 2026, China dependence & export controls, Margin pressure from R&D, with a Target Price: $182.04. 'THE BOTTOM LINE' reiterates 'BUY Target: $221.48 (+9.38%)' and states, 'Our model sees room to rise based on data-center royalty momentum, despite recent volatility.'
24/7 Wall St.

Why Bulls See $400+ Ahead

Arm Neoverse shipments have passed 1.5 billion cores, and the latest 500 million shipped in just nine months. Vera from NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Google’s Axion, AWS Graviton 5 and Microsoft’s Cobalt 200 all run on Arm (we studied what the earliest signals of the next monster chip winner looked like in a free report here: The Next Nvidia Playbook).

The CEO also said demand for the AGI CPU has outgrown the opportunity first outlined. Among analysts, 8 rate the stock Strong Buy and 21 rate it Buy. If data-center royalties keep compounding, our bull scenario reaches $407.95.

ARM analyst ratings

Risks That Could Drag Arm to $182

Arm trades at 239x trailing earnings. Its GAAP operating margin fell to 7% from 11% as R&D rise to $838M. Bulls would answer that this spending funds the AGI CPU, and that the non-GAAP operating margin held near 41%.

Still, a Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) trial expected in Q4 2026, dependence on Arm China, export controls and weak smartphone sales all add risk. In our bear scenario, the stock falls to $182.04.

Is Arm Pricier Than NVIDIA and Broadcom?

NVIDIA is the leading accelerator business and the clearest contrast to Arm’s licensing model. It trades at 13x forward earnings, while quarterly revenue grew 105.85%.

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) designs custom silicon, which makes it a useful hybrid comparison. Its AI semiconductor revenue rose 221%, and the stock sits at 17x forward earnings.

Company Forward P/E Latest Quarterly Revenue Growth
Arm 83x 22.4%
NVIDIA 13x 105.85%
Broadcom 17x 85.5%

Arm’s premium reflects durable royalty streams. Our model puts heavy weight on the forward multiple, which already discounts that premium. Against these peers, the modest upside in our target looks reasonable.

Our Model Says BUY, With Volatility Attached

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $221.48 carries a buy rating at 90% confidence. Data-center royalty momentum tips the scale.

I would view the stock positively if AGI CPU shipments increase on schedule and data-center royalties keep doubling. I would grow cautious if the Qualcomm ruling goes against Arm or if margins keep fell. After the recent drop, our model sees room for the price to rise.

Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects Arm could trade, assuming current growth trends and market conditions hold.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target
2026 $207.49
2027 $221.48
2028 $232.95
2029 $267.96
2030 $253.30

These projections assume Arm keeps executing on its current strategy. Large moves in either direction could come from AGI CPU adoption or the outcome of the Qualcomm litigation.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.

Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.

When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.

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