Jim Cramer Warns About the AI Data Center Trade. What It Means for Nvidia and Broadcom
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Jim Cramer is staying out of the AI infrastructure trade for now. On CNBC on November 10, 2026, he said: “I don’t want to make this trade because I still feel that you don’t want to be that linked to the data center yet.” He said it as the two biggest chip names in the expansion moved in opposite directions. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) fell 5.22% to $169.35 in Tuesday morning trading. Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) rose 3.21% to $329.72.
How Much of Each Company Depends on Data Centers
Being “linked to the data center” means a stock’s earnings rise or fall with how much a small group of cloud providers and AI labs spend on servers. NVIDIA is about as linked as a company can be. In the quarter it reported in August, Data Center brought in $89.02 billion of $96.22 billion in total revenue, or about 93%. Its supply obligations reached $279 billion, mostly memory bought for Vera Rubin. Days sales outstanding increased to 60 days from 45. Those are large commitments to make before you know whether demand will hold.
Broadcom has more margin, and that margin is shrinking. AI semiconductors made up 56% of total revenue in fiscal Q3, up from 49% in Q2, according to the company’s 8-K earnings release. Broadcom has six XPU customers and set up financing vehicles for two of them, Anthropic and OpenAI. Hock Tan said most AI computing demand “originates from this concentrated group who develop state-of-the-art frontier models.” He also raised a deployment risk: “Even as we ship the chips, will they be deployed on a timely basis?”
Both Stocks Have Already Fallen
NVIDIA is down 26.14% over the past month and 8.98% year to date. Part of that drop has nothing to do with data center demand. NVIDIA opened an investigation into its chief executive’s relationship with a suspected Chinese spy, and the stock fell for a second day as investors considered what it could mean (The New York Times, CNBC). Other chip stocks rallied during the same stretch (CNBC). Broadcom is down 8.8% over the month and 4.21% for 2026.
Why the Bulls Disagree
The other side of Cramer’s argument rests on valuation. NVIDIA trades at a trailing P/E of 36. Against consensus EPS of $15.9146 for the fiscal year ending January 2028, the multiple falls to about 11x. That EPS estimate has grown from $12.8148 90 days ago. Broadcom trades at roughly 17x fiscal 2027 consensus EPS of $19.4651. Management expects AI revenue of about $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and $230 billion in fiscal 2028, and says it has already secured supply for both years.
Jensen Huang sees the same thing: “AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue.”
Those low multiples only hold if the estimates turn out right, and the estimates vary widely. NVIDIA’s fiscal 2028 revenue estimates run from $506.48 billion to $778.47 billion. Broadcom’s fiscal 2027 estimates run from $114.72 billion to $200.12 billion. That wide spread shows how unsure analysts are about where AI spending is headed, which is Cramer’s point.
What to Watch in the Next Earnings Reports
- NVIDIA: whether revenue meets its guidance of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, which assumes no China Data Center computing sales. Also watch how the $279 billion in supply commitments changes. Results will be posted on NVIDIA’s investor relations site.
- Broadcom: whether fiscal Q4 revenue reaches about $34.8 billion and AI semiconductor revenue reaches $21.7 billion. Also watch the gross margin guide of about 73%, which is coming down as lower-margin XPUs make up more of sales.
- Deployment timing: Tan named “land, power, and shell” as major constraints. Delays at customer data center sites would push revenue into later quarters even if orders stay the same.
For holders, the main question is concentration. NVIDIA gets most of its revenue from data centers. Broadcom has its VMware software business, which grew 29% last quarter, but AI chips make up a larger share of sales every quarter.
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Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
