Why October 15 Is the Most Important Day for NVIDIA and Broadcom Through Thanksgiving

From the moment Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM | TSM Price Prediction) reports before the open on October 15, 2026 through the market close on November 25, the last session before Thanksgiving, we expect Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) to outperform NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA).

The reason is not whether TSMC beats third-quarter earnings estimates. Investors will already know revenue for all three months of the quarter before the call. What matters is what the world’s largest advanced-chip manufacturer says about AI demand, capacity and advanced packaging heading into 2027.

Forget the Quarter. TSMC’s 2027 Outlook Is What Matters

TSMC reports monthly revenue, so investors already know July sales jumped 44.7% year over year and August sales rose 53.3%. September revenue is scheduled for October 8, a full week before earnings.

TSMC has guided for third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. That makes the reported sales number less important than what management says about the demand it sees further out.

Few companies have more riding on that outlook than NVIDIA and Broadcom. NVIDIA lists TSMC among the foundries manufacturing its chips, while Broadcom is even more concentrated. Approximately 95% of the wafers manufactured for Broadcom during the first three quarters of fiscal 2026 came from TSMC.

The numbers already show how completely AI has reshaped TSMC. High-performance computing accounted for 66% of second-quarter revenue after growing 20% sequentially. Advanced process technologies of 7 nanometers and below accounted for 77% of wafer revenue.

Advanced packaging may be the most important signal of all. TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said in July that packaging capacity had become so tight it was limiting customers’ growth. Any indication that those constraints are persisting into 2027 would be another sign that AI-chip demand continues to outrun supply.

Broadcom Just Made a Massive 2027 Bet

This is where TSMC’s report gets interesting for Broadcom holders.

Broadcom’s AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7 billion last quarter, up 221% year over year and 54% sequentially. Management expects $21.7 billion this quarter, up another 236% year over year.

But the bigger number is 2027.

Broadcom now expects roughly $115 billion in fiscal 2027 AI semiconductor revenue, roughly double its expected 2026 level. Management says demand is actually higher than that forecast and that it has secured the supply needed to hit the $115 billion target. Broadcom also sees a path to $230 billion in fiscal 2028 AI semiconductor revenue, with supply secured against that outlook as well.

That gives investors a very different reason to listen to TSMC.

Broadcom has already told Wall Street the demand is there and the supply chain is being lined up. TSMC can now provide an independent check on whether the broader advanced-node and packaging environment supports a ramp of that magnitude.

NVIDIA Has a Different Problem: Expectations

None of this means NVIDIA’s business is weakening.

Quite the opposite.

NVIDIA’s Data Center revenue reached $89 billion last quarter, up 117% year over year. Vera Rubin is already in production, and NVIDIA said in August that it had received purchase orders from every major hyperscaler, AI cloud provider and system OEM.

That is extraordinary demand.

It is also why a strong TSMC report may tell investors less that they do not already know about NVIDIA.

Broadcom’s custom AI accelerator business is still changing rapidly enough that each new indication of stronger 2027 capacity requirements can force Wall Street to reconsider how large the business ultimately becomes.

For NVIDIA, a strong TSMC outlook confirms the existing story.

For Broadcom, it could expand it.

Our Call: Broadcom Has More to Gain

TSMC’s third-quarter revenue is largely visible already. The real catalyst on October 15 will be what management says about 2027 high-performance computing demand, advanced nodes and packaging capacity.

If TSMC says customers’ requirements continue climbing into next year, both NVIDIA and Broadcom should benefit.

But Broadcom has more at stake.

The company is telling investors its AI semiconductor business can roughly double to $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and double again to $230 billion in fiscal 2028. Strong commentary from TSMC would provide an important independent confirmation that the manufacturing buildout behind those numbers remains exceptionally strong.

NVIDIA enters the same report with Rubin already ramping and $89 billion of quarterly Data Center revenue. Investors know its AI demand is enormous.

That difference in expectations is why we prefer Broadcom from the October 15 TSMC report through the November 25 close.

If NVIDIA outperforms Broadcom over that window, this call is wrong.

But don’t watch TSMC’s EPS number to decide who has the better setup. Watch what TSMC says its customers need in 2027.

That is where the more important signal will be.

(We reverse-engineered what the biggest tech winners looked like early and turned it into a free guide you can get here.)

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.