Rocket Lab Sinks 9% Despite Record Backlog, AST SpaceMobile Falls 6% on BofA Price Target Cut; SpaceX Slides 3%

Space stocks are falling as the market processes two quarterly reports that landed after the November 9 close. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) stock is at $53.33, down 9% in morning trading. The company’s Q3 2026 report combined a record backlog with a wider-than-expected loss, and the selloff shows which half of that story is carrying more weight.

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is also lower after Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) Securities cut its price target on the stock. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is falling too. Launch capacity ties the three together, since Rocket Lab sells it, AST SpaceMobile needs it and SpaceX dominates it.

Rocket Lab’s Record Backlog Collides With a Wider Loss

Rocket Lab disclosed on November 9 that Q3 revenue reached $267.83 million, up 72.7% year over year and ahead of the $257.18 million consensus. The company’s loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $0.12 per share, missing expectations for a $0.0665 loss. Two one-time items drove much of that miss: a $27.26 million loss on retiring convertible notes and $21.34 million in costs for the pending acquisition of Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM).

Other details likely added pressure. Non-GAAP gross margin at Rocket Lab falling to 38.4% from 41.9% a year earlier. Neutron’s first launch now sits no earlier than 2027, and Rocket Lab CFO Adam Spice said adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) should turn positive within six months of the rocket’s first successful flight. Funding for Iridium came partly from new shares, as Rocket Lab’s at-the-market program raised $2.4 billion in gross proceeds.

The bull case starts with demand. Backlog at Rocket Lab hit a record $3.57 billion. CEO Peter Beck stated on the call that “Neutron’s first 16 launches are booked and the next available slots are in the 2030s.” Several of those missions carry a new $70 million base price. Management’s Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $270 million to $290 million sits above the $265.42 million consensus.

On November 10, the Pentagon offered Rocket Lab a $150 million conditional loan to speed up Neutron. Closing that commitment still requires Rocket Lab to meet financial, legal and due diligence requirements.

AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX Slide Less Than Rocket Lab

AST SpaceMobile stock is at $34.60, down 6%. Bank of America Securities cut its price target to $45 from $80 and kept a Neutral rating, citing a slower launch pace, later commercial availability and execution risk in AST SpaceMobile’s plan to build its own rocket. The research note followed the company’s Q3 report, in which revenue of $42.32 million missed the $46 million consensus while the loss of $0.44 per Class A share came in slightly better than the $0.4479 estimate. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance at AST SpaceMobile held at $150 million to $200 million.

By mid-2027, AST SpaceMobile targets about 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit, and it revealed Blacklift, a reusable rocket with first launches targeted for late 2028. Engines for Blacklift will come from Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY) under a $1.3 billion supply agreement.

SpaceX stock is at $137.87, down 3%, a smaller decline than either Rocket Lab or AST SpaceMobile. That’s a softer move for the sector’s largest company, which last reported quarterly results on October 20.

How Launch Capacity Links Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX

Rocket Lab sells launch services and builds spacecraft for commercial, government and defense customers, and it’s adding satellite communications through Iridium. On the call, Beck described launch capacity as extremely constrained, and when asked about AST SpaceMobile building its own rocket, he said Rocket Lab is rooting for everybody.

AST SpaceMobile partners with mobile network operators to deliver cellular broadband directly to standard smartphones, which makes the company a buyer of launch until Blacklift flies. A batch of its BlueBird satellites is already waiting on a SpaceX launch date.

SpaceX competes with Rocket Lab for launch contracts through its Falcon rockets and Starship, while its Starlink unit competes with AST SpaceMobile in direct-to-cell service. That dual role makes SpaceX both a supplier to AST SpaceMobile and a rival to it.

Neutron, Iridium and Blacklift Set Up the Next Chapter for Space Stocks

Rocket Lab now faces two questions: whether Neutron moves from tank testing to a firm launch date and whether the Iridium acquisition closes. A clean test campaign could support the case that the record backlog turns into revenue, while another delay could keep pressure on margins and cash flow.

AST SpaceMobile management noted on the call it will revealed Blacklift at an event in New York City on November 12. Traders can watch for a confirmed SpaceX launch date for the next BlueBird batch, given that Bank of America Securities cited launch pace as a risk, and execution risk on a homegrown rocket sits against maintained guidance and a growing list of government contracts.

Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are both combined strong demand with heavy spending, which leaves each stock sensitive to every development milestone, and investors may want to research the timing of Neutron’s first flight closely as that milestone resolves.

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