Rocket Lab Vs. AST SpaceMobile: Chase the Better SpaceX Disruptor
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile both want to disrupt SpaceX, both reported earnings the same night, and both stocks just took a beating. Only one of them fits a diversified portfolio right now.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) both reported Q2 2026 results on August 10, 2026. One is a vertically integrated launcher chasing SpaceX on rockets and satellites. The other is trying to be SpaceX for your phone. Same night, same “disruptor” label, radically different businesses.
Record Backlog for Rocket Lab, Beta Countdown for AST
Rocket Lab posted $234.07 million in revenue, up 62.0% year over year, with Space Systems contributing $189.5 million after the Mynaric and Motiv deals closed. Backlog swelled to $2.36 billion, up 137%, with launch capacity described as unusually constrained. CEO Peter Beck called it “another fantastic quarter”, and the numbers back him up.
AST SpaceMobile is earlier in its arc. Revenue reached $31.52 million, missing consensus by 8.36%, and the GAAP loss ballooned to -$0.77 per share after a $125.9 million charge tied to the BB7 launch incident. Still, the constellation now holds 13 spacecraft with roughly 20,000 square feet of aperture, and CEO Abel Avellan says the company is “preparing to initiate beta services with select strategic partners.”
| Business Driver | Rocket Lab | AST SpaceMobile |
| Main Revenue Engine | Satellite manufacturing and launch | Gateway hardware, government milestones |
| Backlog | $2.36B | ~$1.30B |
| Cash on Hand | $2.13B | >$3.7B pro forma |
Vertical Integration Versus a Single Bold Bet
Rocket Lab is stitching together a full space stack. The announced Iridium acquisition adds 66 satellites, 2.5 million subscribers, and more than $870 million in annual revenue. Neutron, priced at a $50 to $55 million ASP, is targeting a Q4 2026 pad delivery, with Beck admitting “the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing.”
AST is doing one thing, at enormous scale: direct-to-smartphone broadband. It has 60-plus MNO partners covering 3 billion subscribers, a preliminary $1 billion J-LEO award with Rakuten in Japan, and Block 2 satellites aimed at ~200 Mbps peak data rates. Q2 capex hit roughly $610 million, so the runway matters.
Neutron Flight and Beta Launch Are the Real Catalysts
For Rocket Lab, I want to see Neutron actually leave the pad and Iridium close cleanly by mid-2027. For AST, the tell is beta service converting into paid commercial revenue and BlueBirds 17-46 launching on cadence toward ~45 satellites by early 2027. Both stocks have cooled, with RKLB down 22.56% over the past month and ASTS off 16.36%. The bar is higher now.
Why I Lean Toward Rocket Lab for Diversified Exposure
On the current data, Rocket Lab looks like the more diversified profile. Revenue is real, defense demand is stacking up (see the $397M Flatellite award), and the Iridium deal gives it a services annuity. AST is the higher-variance bet. If beta works and Japan converts, the upside is enormous. If launches slip again, dilution risk stays real. The framing splits cleanly: Rocket Lab as the compounder, AST as the moonshot (we wrote a free playbook on sizing speculative bets like this one without wrecking the rest of the portfolio, here). A bad Neutron test firing would raise the bar further on either name.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
