Gilead Beat the S&P 500 by More Than 25 Points in the Past Year, but $1,000 From a Decade Ago Is Still Worth Less Than $3,500
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Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD | GILD Price Prediction) returned 37.56% over the past year through the Nov. 13, 2026 close, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), used here as a stand-in for the index, returned 12.25%. That puts Gilead 25.31 percentage points ahead. Over ten years, though, Gilead still trails the index.
Hepatitis C Cures Shrank Their Own Market
For those unfamiliar, Gilead sells HIV treatments, liver disease drugs and cancer therapies. Its hepatitis C cures, Sovaldi and Harvoni, cured enough patients that the pool of new patients shrank, and sales declined after their peak. To replace that revenue, Gilead bought Kite Pharma in 2017 for about $11.9B to get into cell therapy, then Immunomedics in 2020 for Trodelvy. The COVID drug Veklury gave a temporary lift that has since faded, with third-quarter sales down 69%[1] to $86M.
HIV Prevention Powered a Strong 2026
In results filed Oct. 29, 2026[1], HIV sales rose 18%[1] to $6.249B. Yeztugo, a twice-yearly shot that prevents HIV infection, brought in $305M[1] versus $39M a year earlier. Descovy rose 49%,[1] and Trodelvy rose 42%. Gilead raised 2026 product sales guidance to $31.0-$31.3B[1].
Gilead Turned $1,000 Into $3,249, While the Index Reached $4,011
1-Year Return
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $1,375.60
- Total Return: 37.56%
- S&P 500 (SPY): $1,122.50 (12.25%)
5-Year Return
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $2,974.30
- Total Return: 197.43%
- Annualized Return: 24.4%
- S&P 500 (SPY, price only): $1,614.40 (61.44%)
10-Year Return (bought Nov. 30, 2016 at $73.70, dividends reinvested)
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $3,249
- Total Return: 224.9%
- Annualized Return: about 12.5%
- S&P 500 (SPY): $4,011 (301.1%)
By share price alone, the ten-year investment would be worth $2,281. The quarterly dividend rose from $0.47 in late 2016 to $0.82 now, and reinvesting it accounts for the difference. The five-year window started near a low of $56.51. Even after a strong year, Gilead still lags the index over ten years.
The stock trades at about 17 times forward earnings and yields 1.94%. Analysts have an average target of $174.77, with 6 strong buy, 16 buy, 5 hold, and 1 strong sell ratings.
Medicare Pricing Keeps Gilead a Close Call for Now
The outlook depends partly on whether HIV prevention keeps growing and the new cancer drugs deliver, starting with anito-cel, which has an FDA decision date of December 23, 2026[2]. Drug pricing rules are another variable. Medicare’s Biktarvy price takes effect Jan. 1, 2028, and Gilead estimates a net hit of about $1.5 billion[2] to Biktarvy revenue that year. Cash also fell from $10.6B to $6.4B during the acquisition push.
The 2028 Medicare pricing change stays a factor in the outlook. Over ten years, reinvested dividends added to the total return.
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David Beren has been a Flywheel Publishing contributor since 2022. Writing for 24/7 Wall St. since 2023, David loves to write about topics of all shapes and sizes. As a technology expert, David focuses heavily on consumer electronics brands, automobiles, and general technology. He has previously written for LifeWire, formerly About.com. As a part-time freelance writer, David’s “day job” has been working on and leading social media for multiple Fortune 100 brands. David loves the flexibility of this field and its ability to reach customers exactly where they like to spend their time. Additionally, David previously published his own blog, TmoNews.com, which reached 3 million readers in its first year. In addition to freelance and social media work, David loves to spend time with his family and children and relive the glory days of video game consoles by playing any retro game console he can get his hands on.
