How Low Will XRP Go in 2026? Prediction Markets Give XRP a 70% Chance of Falling Below $1

XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) trades around $1.12 after making a new yearly low near $1.06 this month, and the question on every holder’s mind is how much lower it goes. On Robinhood’s prediction markets, traders are putting real money on exactly that question—and right now they price roughly 70% odds that XRP trades below $1.00 at some point in 2026.

The same market prices every level below that, all the way down to $0.20, so the contracts show not just whether XRP falls but where the crowd expects the bottom to form. And the full picture is less scary than that one number sounds.

What the XRP Prediction Market Odds Show

The market runs on Robinhood, with contracts cleared on Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated exchange, and it asks one question: how low will XRP get in 2026? 

Each contract pays $1 if the year’s low falls below a given level, with the outcome judged on a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks’ XRP price index, so the contract’s price works as the crowd’s probability. The “below $1.00” contract trades around 71 cents—a 71% chance, in the crowd’s eyes—and that level is one bad week away from today’s price.

Further down, below $0.80 costs 53 cents, below $0.60 costs 25 cents, below $0.40 costs 19 cents, and below $0.20 costs just 7 cents. The gaps between those prices show what the crowd actually expects, because the difference between any two contracts is the odds that the year’s low forms between those levels. 

Counted that way, the two most likely outcomes are nearly tied: a 29% chance XRP never breaks below $1.00 at all this year, and a 28% chance it drops to the $0.60 to $0.80 range. The crowd is genuinely split between XRP holding above $1.00 and one more leg down, and almost nobody is paying for collapse.

Why the Money Leans Toward XRP Dropping Below $1

XRP trades below every major moving average, the broader market remains under pressure with the Iran conflict unresolved, and the Fed showing no sign of cutting rates. The $1.00 mark is also about 11% away from the current price. Such a close level in a falling market gets hit more often than not, and the odds reflect that.

Another reason is that the average XRP holder is now underwater. Glassnode data from June 9 puts the token’s realized price—the average price every holder paid for their XRP—at roughly $1.48, well above where XRP trades today. With the typical position now showing a loss, Glassnode labels the current phase intense capitulation: for every dollar of profit being realized on-chain, holders are booking $2.63 in losses, which is the most lopsided this cycle.

History explains why a betting market treats falling below that line as a warning rather than a buy signal. The last time XRP spent a sustained stretch below its realized price, starting in April 2022, it stayed underneath for roughly two years before the November 2024 breakout finally pulled holders back into profit. 

So, traders paying 71 cents for the sub-$1 contract are betting that capitulation phases take time to resolve, and there are nearly seven months of 2026 left for a single ugly stretch to get there.

Where the Odds Say the XRP Price Bottoms

The odds point to a bottom in the $0.60 to $0.80 zone—the market’s most likely band for the year’s low—and that lines up with what the charts have been showing all along. 

When we mapped XRP’s downside in early June, the indicator that caught every XRP bear-market bottom since 2017 pointed to the $0.70–$0.90 zone, and analysts’ bearish targets clustered between $0.63 and $0.92.

Still, the contract settles on XRP’s lowest 60-second average of the year, so “below $1.00” pays out even if XRP reaches it for one minute in October and finishes the year at $1.50. 

That said, a 70% chance of touching a level is not a 70% chance of staying there, and the liquidity is thin enough—several cents between what buyers bid and sellers ask—that the probabilities are approximate. They also move by the hour, so they read better as a live gauge of sentiment than as a fixed forecast.

What’s the Most Likely Bottom for XRP in 2026?

Going by the people with actual money on it, XRP probably dips below $1.00 at some point this year. The bigger question is where it stops, and here the odds are split almost evenly between a low that holds above $1.00 and one more leg down into the $0.60 to $0.80 zone, the same area the charts have flagged for nearly a decade. A drop much below that is a bet almost no one is making.

For holders, the harder part is not how low the XRP price goes but how long it stays there. The last time the average holder was underwater, in 2022, the climb back took two years, and these odds give no reason to expect a quicker turn this time. The people with money down think XRP recovers eventually, but they’re not expecting it soon.