XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is finally moving again, climbing back to $1.11 after a week and a half stuck near $1.05. And this time, the bounce comes with a buy signal attached. It’s the first from the SuperTrend indicator since mid-June—the same tool that warned before both of last month’s big selloffs.
However, the indicator has been wrong before. Its buy signal in April came with XRP near $1.43, and the token still lost more than 25% afterward. So, will the XRP price actually rally this time?
The Indicator That Caught XRP’s June Crash Just Flipped to Buy
On July 2, analyst Ali Martinez flagged the SuperTrend indicator—a trend-following tool that switches between buy and sell as momentum turns—flashing a buy signal on XRP’s 4-hour chart for the first time since mid-June.
The last time it flashed a buy, XRP rallied 14.2% before the signal reversed. It also turned bearish ahead of XRP’s last two major declines of 19.5% and 16.6%, so it has caught the downside as well as the bounces, which is why traders treat it as more than another line on a chart.
XRP closed at $1.087 on July 2, its first close above $1.07 since June 24, and buyers have kept pushing since. Even spot XRP ETFs turned positive again the same day, swinging back to a $6.55 million inflow after two small daily outflows had closed out the quarter, per SoSoValue data.
Bitcoin reclaiming $61,000 after its lowest level in nearly two years helped too, and Ripple added its own catalyst this week, with validators now voting on a new institutional lending protocol for the XRP Ledger.
Why Traders Think This Time Is the Actual Bottom
One indicator alone wouldn’t mean much, but the buy signal came just as several separate measures hit levels XRP has rarely or never seen. Analyst EGRAG Crypto points out that the token’s monthly RSI—a gauge of how oversold or overheated an asset is—has entered the most oversold territory in XRP’s history, breaking below 40. That reading is deeper than anything the token printed in past bear markets, per his long-term chart.
Moreover, Santiment’s 30-day MVRV—a metric that compares the current price to what traders recently paid—reads around -45%, meaning the average recent buyer is deep underwater. Santiment’s own take is that readings this negative have historically marked strong long-term buying zones, since sellers at these levels are usually exhausted rather than getting started.
Meanwhile, the network itself is waking up. Daily active addresses climbed from about 23,000 to nearly 40,000 in two weeks, and the ledger added almost 5,000 new wallets in a single day, which is the most in more than three months. Bottoms tend to form where the selling dries up and activity returns, and the activity is showing up for the first time this year.
XRP’s Last Big Buy Signal Ended in a 25% Drop
Before anyone calls the bottom, it’s worth remembering what happened in April. The same SuperTrend indicator flashed a buy on XRP’s daily chart that month—its first since January 17—with the token trading near $1.43, but the rally never came. XRP chopped sideways for weeks, then broke down with the rest of the market, and by late June it traded more than 25% below that level.
Moreover, CryptoQuant’s whale-versus-retail spread reads 50.9%, which shows large investors buying far more aggressively than retail. However, a different CryptoQuant gauge—the 30-day average of whale flows—turned negative this week for the first time in nearly four months, and Santiment logged whales selling more than 30 million XRP over five days back in mid-June. The numbers disagree, so nobody actually knows what whales are doing right now.
And the bigger trend hasn’t changed. XRP still trades below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages—stacked from about $1.19 up to $1.52. A descending trendline has capped every recovery attempt since May, and market sentiment has been stuck in extreme fear for over a month.
The Levels That Could Turn a Bounce Into a Bottom
The current debate about whether XRP’s bottom is in or not settles at two prices. The first is $1.06, where Glassnode’s data shows some 830 million XRP last changed hands—the biggest cluster of buyers anywhere near the current price.
Holders tend to defend the price where they bought, which makes $1.06 the floor this recovery has to hold. That’s one cent below the $1.07 ceiling XRP just cleared, and it’s the line that matters if this bounce fades. A daily close below it points toward the next big cluster near $0.80.
The second is the $1.10 to $1.13 zone, where the reclaim level analysts keep naming, the 20-day average, and the descending trendline all stack within a few cents of each other. XRP has just pushed into the lower edge of that zone at $1.11, but entering it and holding above it are different things—the token hadn’t even traded in this zone since June 23.
And if this signal does what the last one did, a 14% climb from the $1.087 close would put XRP near $1.24, which is above the entire zone.
Will the XRP Price Rally this Time?
We think everything a bottom needs is finally in place, and XRP has just pushed into the zone that decides it. But entering the $1.10 to $1.13 area means little on its own—the mid-June bounce cleared this same zone and spent a week above it before giving everything back. A bottom is only confirmed if XRP holds the zone this time.
However, this setup is stronger than April’s. That buy signal came with XRP near $1.43 and nothing else supporting it. Today’s comes with the most oversold monthly reading the token has ever printed, rising network activity, and fund money returning. So yes, we think XRP can rally toward $1.24, matching the signal’s last run—as long as the token stays above $1.10. If $1.06 breaks first, the rally is off, and the next chance would come at lower prices.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
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