The XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) price has been falling for most of this year. But its weekly RSI has now dropped below 30, a rare oversold level, for only the second time in its trading history. And the last time that happened, XRP went on to gain more than 1,100% in value.
A signal that rare is worth taking seriously, because the first one marked the exact bottom of the last bear market. So does the second signal mean the XRP price is about to take off again?
How XRP’s Yearlong Slide Pushed Its Weekly RSI Into Oversold
XRP’s fall this year has been a slow grind, with each support level holding for a while and then giving way. The coin traded near $1.84 at the start of the year, already well below its July 2025 peak of $3.66, and the selling never let up from there. Then XRP kept dropping and mostly held the $1.30-$1.45 range for most of the first and second quarters.
The $1.28 support that buyers had defended since February finally broke in early June, and by the end of that month the XRP price had slid to $1.009, which is its lowest price in nearly two years.
Months of selling like that are exactly what it takes to drag the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) signal below 30. The RSI is a gauge of how overbought or oversold a move has become, and a reading below 30 means the selling has gone too far, too fast.
On the daily chart, XRP breaks below that line all the time, since one rough week can do it. But the weekly version tracks the trend over months, so it only drops below 30 after the selling has been heavy and relentless for a long stretch, which is what XRP just went through.
In June, XRP’s weekly RSI dropped to around 29.6, and that is only the second stretch below 30 in more than a decade of weekly chart data, and the first one is where the 1,100% figure comes from.
What Happened the Last Time XRP’s Weekly RSI Hit Oversold?
The first time XRP’s weekly RSI went oversold was in June 2022, right after the Terra stablecoin collapsed and dragged the whole crypto market down. XRP fell to $0.29 that month, with the weekly RSI bottoming at 28.09, and that turned out to be the exact low. The coin has never traded below $0.30 since, not even when the price retested that zone in January 2023.
Then on July 13, 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP sales on public exchanges were not securities transactions, which was the biggest legal win in the token’s history. XRP jumped more than 70% in a single day. However, the spike faded after a few weeks, and the crypto gave back most of the move to settle into the $0.50 to $0.60 range.
XRP stayed stuck in that range through the rest of 2023 and most of 2024. More than two years after the supposed buy signal, anyone who bought the exact bottom had barely doubled their money, and everyone who bought higher was still waiting.
XRP finally took off in November 2024, and the trigger had nothing to do with anything on the chart. Donald Trump won the U.S. election, investors started betting on a crypto-friendly administration, and the SEC’s fight with Ripple was clearly winding down. XRP closed at $0.56 two days after the vote and reached $2.52 by early December—less than a month later.
The XRP price eventually topped out at $3.66 in July 2025. The climb from the 2022 bottom to that peak turned out eo be a 1,100% gain. But it took nearly two and a half years to begin, and most of it came in a few months once the catalysts arrived. The signal marked the floor, but XRP didn’t rally until the right catalyst sparked a rally.
Can XRP Rally 1,100% Again From $1.10?
Another 1,100% rally sounds achievable for XRP since it has pulled it off before, but the numbers are much bigger this time. From around $1.10, that rally would put XRP near $13, which would make it an asset worth nearly $800 billion at its current supply. That is bigger than Ethereum has ever been and close to two-thirds of Bitcoin’s entire value today.
The last time this signal flashed, XRP was worth about $14 billion, and even then it needed an election, a lawsuit winding down, and a full bull cycle to make that climb. A move of that size from today’s $67 billion would need institutional money on a scale the first rally never required.
Oversold signals have also failed this year. XRP’s weekly RSI spent much of 2026 hovering just above the oversold line while the price kept falling, and a similar buy signal that flashed in April failed outright, with XRP trading more than 25% lower by late June.
In a downtrend, oversold mostly measures how deep the selling has been, but it shows nothing about when buyers would come back, and right now the buyers are missing. Money going into the spot XRP ETFs has slowed to almost nothing this month after topping $130 million in May, and the CLARITY Act—the bill that would settle XRP’s legal status for good—still has no scheduled Senate floor vote with the recess starting August 7.
That said, the current mood in the market genuinely matches that of 2022. Santiment’s MVRV data, which compares the current price to what holders paid, shows XRP holders carrying their deepest average losses ever recorded, with the 30-day reading near -45% and the 365-day at -47%. Numbers like that describe sellers who are exhausted rather than getting started, and that is the same condition that marked the 2022 bottom.
And if a bottom is forming, it’s forming on stronger ground than the last one. XRP went into the 2022 low with an active SEC lawsuit and no institutional products at all. This time the case is settled, regulators classify XRP as a commodity, there are XRP ETFs, and Ripple has conditional approval for a national trust bank charter.
Is This the Bottom for the XRP Price?
We think this signal is worth trusting as a sign of the bottom, but not as a promise of a rally. The 2022 signal marked the low almost perfectly. XRP never traded below $0.30 again, but the climb didn’t start for another two and a half years.
If this second signal does the same thing, today’s prices near $1 could be the cheapest XRP ever gets this cycle. A 1,100% clib would see XRP hit $13 and that seems like a long shot from its current price. And based on the last signal, it could take well into 2028 before XRP rallies that high.
The Senate holds the one thing that could shorten the wait this time. If the CLARITY Act gets its floor vote before the recess and passes, the demand that took over two years to arrive after the 2022 signal could show up much faster. If it doesn’t, XRP most likely won’t rally until the next cycle, the same way it happened last time. The RSI may have just told holders where the bottom is, but has never reflected when the rally starts.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks