XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) trades around $1.10 today, roughly 70% below the $3.65 peak it reached last July. At this level, most of the talk around the coin is about whether it can climb back to $2 anytime soon. But for long-term XRP holders, there’s an even bigger question. Can XRP ever hit double digits?
XRP has pulled off explosive rallies before, and Ripple keeps building financial infrastructure around the coin, so the idea that the XRP price can hit double digits isn’t as crazy as it sounds. We ran the numbers to see what it would actually take for XRP to hit $10 or more, and when it could realistically happen.
Why the XRP Price Is Still Stuck Near $1
On paper, this should be one of XRP’s best months in years. Ripple picked up a full European license in early July, which lets it offer crypto services across the whole EU. Then in Japan, regulators approved its RLUSD stablecoin in late June, and SBI, Ripple’s biggest outside shareholder, is building XRP lending for institutions there. The XRP Ledger even crossed one million AI agent payments this month, with software agents paying for online services in XRP on their own.
Yet none of it has reached the XRP price. XRP has been stuck between roughly $1 and $1.15 since June, and every attempt to break above $1.20, the level that would end its year-long downtrend, has failed.
Meanwhile, only 2,130 new wallets were created on the XRP Ledger on July 11, the lowest count since November 2024, and the number of wallets active each day is near its low for the year. So while Ripple keeps signing deals, fewer and fewer people are actually using its network.
Moreover, institutional money has gone quiet, with XRP ETF inflows dropping from $131.94 million in May to $59 million in June, and to almost nothing so far this month. It doesn’t help that most of what Ripple wins, from licenses to software deals, earns the company money without the token being involved at all.
So, until some of that changes, XRP is a cryptocurrency with improving fundamentals and no fresh buyers, and no crypto climbs to double digits on that combination.
What XRP Could be Worth at Double Digits
From $1.10, a $10 XRP price seems like one extremely bullish rally away. Crypto produces 9x moves all the time, and XRP itself has done far better before. But a 9x rally today is nothing like the ones in XRP’s past, because of what the coin would be worth at that price.
With about 62.47 billion XRP in circulation, a $10 price would value the token at roughly $625 billion. That’s more than Ethereum was worth at its all-time high, and Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that has ever been worth more.
XRP also has to get past its own history first, because the token has never traded above $3.84—a record that has stood since January 2018. Even last year’s big rally fell short of it, so a $10 price would be more than two and a half times XRP’s current ATH, which it hasn’t reached in over seven years.
Another factor that might make XRP reaching the target difficult is that Ripple releases up to a billion XRP every month from escrow, and while most of it gets locked back up, the circulating supply still grows by a few hundred million tokens monthly. Once the supply reaches 70 billion, likely within the next few years, the same $10 price would put the token’s total value near $700 billion.
That said, XRP has blown through impossible-looking targets twice already, first in the 2018 run when it climbed from fractions of a penny, and again last cycle when it rallied about seven times off its lows. So, size alone doesn’t rule out XRP hitting double digits.
Where the Money for a Double-Digit XRP Could Come From
Bull cycles are always accustomed to Bitcoin’s halving event. Bitcoin’s next halving arrives in April 2028, cutting the new supply of BTC entering the market in half, and the past two cycles peaked roughly 18 months later. If the pattern holds, the next major top would fall somewhere in 2029 or 2030.
XRP tends to make its biggest moves late in those cycles, and it has twice climbed from a beaten-down base to nearly $4. It hit $3.84 in January 2018, then lost more than 90% of that within a year. It also reached $3.65 last July, and today’s $1.10 price is what’s left of that run.
Then there’s the institutional money still waiting on the law. The SEC and CFTC already classified XRP as a commodity back in March, which is the same legal bucket Bitcoin falls in. But an agency ruling can be reversed by the next administration, and that lingering doubt is what’s keeping the biggest money on the sidelines. The CLARITY Act would write XRP’s commodity status into federal law, where no future administration could touch it.
We estimate that the CLARITY Act passage could pull around $5 billion into the XRP ETFs within a year, compared with the almost nothing coming in right now. The Senate finally released a merged version of the bill this week, combining its two committee drafts, and leadership is now aiming for a floor vote before the August 7 recess. However, the draft leaves out the ethics rules Democrats say they need before they’ll vote for it, so the bill still has to win over about seven of them first.
Everything ultimately depends on the banks too. Of the 300-plus institutions on Ripple’s network, only about 40% actually use XRP to move money, while the rest run Ripple’s software and never touch the token. If those banks ever start settling payments in XRP itself, the token would finally have the deep, steady demand a $600 billion valuation needs.
Ripple is also laying the groundwork for that shift now. It’s waiting on a Federal Reserve master account that would let it move money through the Fed directly. It’s also helping the DTCC, the system that settles trillions of dollars in Wall Street trades, build a service that turns stocks and Treasuries into digital tokens from October 2026.
When Could XRP Hit Double Digits?
XRP could reach double digits, but not anytime soon. The earliest window is 2029 to 2030, when the next halving-driven bull run would be peaking, and when the institutional money the CLARITY Act could unlock, if it passes, would finally be flowing.
Past bull runs have never taken XRP past $4, so the cycle alone wouldn’t do it. The ETFs would have to pull in far more than the $5 billion we estimate for CLARITY’s first year, and banks would have to start settling payments in XRP itself.
Ripple’s wins would also have to start reaching the price, instead of earning the company money while the token gets nothing. Those are the conditions that would carry XRP past its $3.84 record and into double digits, and none of them is close today.
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