3 Levels XRP Must Clear to End Its Year-Long Downtrend

XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) trades near $1.10 today, down about 66% over the past year, and it would have to climb 29% before its downtrend could be called over. The first level standing in the way is only 4% up.

The 50-day moving average is at $1.14, the 100-day at $1.22 and the 200-day at $1.42, with all three still falling. Price below three falling averages is the technical definition of a downtrend, so XRP has to close above each line and hold above it to finally break through.

XRP’s 50-Day EMA Is at $1.14

The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) tracks XRP’s average closing price over the last 50 trading days, weighted toward the most recent sessions so it reacts faster than a simple average would. Traders watch the 50-day EMA as a read on the short-term trend, and the XRP price has been below it since the second week of July.

Trading under that line means the past two and a half months of activity happened at higher prices than today. Anyone who bought XRP in that stretch is holding a loss, and some of them would sell as soon as the price climbs back to what they paid. That selling turns the 50-day into resistance, which is why the level can cap a rally even when nothing else about the market has changed.

XRP’s last attempt came on July 21, when it reached $1.16 intraday before closing at $1.14. It managed the same close the following day, then slipped to $1.11 and has not closed above that since. Clearing the EMA takes a daily close above $1.14 followed by several sessions holding above it, which is a different thing from reaching it intraday and giving it back.

However, clearing the 50-day EMA would only show that XRP’s short-term trend had stopped falling, and the downtrend would still be running. That makes it the smallest of the three things standing between XRP and a reversal.

XRP’s 100-Day EMA Is at $1.22

The 100-day EMA covers roughly five months of trading, which makes it a read on the mid-term trend rather than the last few weeks. And XRP has been below the 100-day EMA since early April.

Clearing $1.22 would carry more weight than clearing the 50-day because it covers twice as much trading history. Everyone who bought XRP over the past five months is holding a loss, and each time the price rises, another group of them reaches what they paid and sells to get out flat. A sustained move above $1.22 would clear that supply entirely, since there would be nobody left holding a losing position.

Those five months also include June, when the XRP price fell more than 20% and dropped to $1.009 on June 26—its closest brush with $1 since November 2024. Reclaiming the 100-day EMA would mean the market had undone that entire collapse. 

However, the eight cents between the 50-day at $1.14 and the 100-day at $1.22 is another 7% climb, and XRP has not traded that high since April.

XRP’s 200-Day EMA Is at $1.42

The 200-day EMA covers close to a year of trading, so a single session barely moves it and the line only turns after the market has run in one direction for a long stretch. Traders treat it as the dividing line between a bull market and a bear market, and the XRP price has traded below it since January.

XRP has therefore spent seven months in a bear market by that definition, and every rally in that time has failed to change it.

However, XRP’s gap to the 200-day EMA has been closing all year for the wrong reason. A moving average is calculated from the prices that go into it, so a year of falling prices drags the 200-day down with them. The line is coming toward XRP because XRP has been falling, which means $1.42 gets easier to reach the longer the decline continues.

What It Would Take to Clear All Three EMAs

The three averages are stacked in the order that defines a downtrend, with the 50-day below the 100-day and the 100-day below the 200-day. Turning the trend takes that stack flipping, and XRP can only flip it by holding above the averages long enough to drag the short ones up through the long ones.

That means clearing $1.14, then $1.22, then $1.42, and holding above each one rather than tagging it and falling back. A 29% climb would get XRP to the top of that range, but doing it in a single run would still leave the averages stacked the wrong way, because they move at the speed of the sessions feeding them rather than at the speed of the price.

So ending this downtrend takes months of trading above these levels, not one strong week. Until XRP manages a daily close above $1.14 and holds it, the other two are not yet in play.

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