XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) has been through some brutal crashes since it started trading in 2013, including two that wiped out more than 90% of its price, and it came back from every one of them. The crash it’s in now is a year old and still going, with the coin trading about 70% below its July 2025 peak.
So we handed XRP’s full crash history to two AI models, ChatGPT and Claude, and asked them when this one ends. Here’s where the AI models think XRP may bottom.
XRP Has Crashed 4 Times Since 2013
Every XRP crash has looked permanent while it was happening. The first hit in 2014, when XRP lost about 95% of its value and then traded below a penny for the next two years.
The 2018 crash had two bottoms. XRP peaked at $3.84 in January 2018 and was down 93% by that December, which looked like the end of the crash at the time. However, the selling wasn’t finished, and XRP didn’t bottom until March 2020, about 96% below the peak.
The 2022 crash was milder, with XRP falling 85% from its April 2021 high to a low of $0.29 before it began the recovery that eventually carried it to $3.65 in July 2025. That $3.65 peak is where the current crash started. XRP is down about 70% since then, and its lowest point so far was $1.009 on June 26, a drop of roughly 72%.
There is also a fifth drop in the record, and both models threw it out. The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, and XRP fell from around $0.75 to $0.17 in a matter of weeks as US exchanges delisted the coin. But that drop reversed almost as fast, with XRP back at $1.96 by April 2021.Â
ChatGPT called it an outlier rather than a comparable bear market, Claude described it as a short shock inside a cycle that was already running, and both built their answers from the same four crashes.
ChatGPT Says the XRP Crash Ends by Mid-August
ChatGPT expects this crash to end almost immediately, putting the finish between July 31 and August 15. That would make June’s low the bottom of the whole thing.
The model gives that outcome 65% odds, and its first reason is how long XRP’s crashes usually run. The three completed bear markets lasted 7, 26, and 14 months, so 14 months is the typical length, and this one has been running for about 12, close enough that ChatGPT called it “a historically normal duration.”
The model also found a seasonal pattern in the record, reading Q3 as XRP’s most reliable recovery quarter across its 13-year history, with first-half of the year losses reversing in the third quarter in each previous bear market. XRP traded near $1.04 in early July and trades around $1.08 now, which is a gain for the month, though a soft one against July’s historical average of about 10%.
However, the weak spot in ChatGPT’s answer is how shallow this crash has been. A 72% decline doesn’t compare to the 85% and 96% wipeouts that ended the last two bear markets, and that could mean this cycle is built differently, or that it simply isn’t finished. ChatGPT rated its own confidence at 6.5 out of 10 and said three comparable cycles are not enough to build a rule on.
The model still leaves a 35% chance that XRP has one more leg down, and it expects that drop would bottom between $0.90 and $0.98 in August or September.
Claude Says the XRP Bottom Was June 26
Claude read the same crash history as ChatGPT and got a different answer, saying that the XRP crash may have already ended a month ago. It found four patterns in XRP’s history and read all four as pointing at June 26, 2026, which is the day XRP hit $1.009 and bounced, and it gives 60% odds that the current crash ended there.
The AI model leans on how much shallower XRP’s last two crashes have been. XRP lost 96% in the cycle that ended in 2020 and 85% in the one that ended in 2022, which is an improvement of 11 points, and taking another 11 points off 85% puts the next bottom around 74% below the peak. The low on June 26 makes the crash about 72%, which is why Claude reads $1.009 as “a completed bottom.”
Moreover, the model counted XRP’s completed bear markets getting shorter since 2018, from 26 months to 14 against about 12 so far for this one, and found the bottoms leaning toward early summer, with lows in July 2014, June 2022 and now June 2026.
However, Claude’s fourth pattern runs into XRP’s own record. The model counted roughly four years between major bottoms, which made mid-2026 due for one, but the history in front of it shows the March 2020 low and the June 2022 low arriving a little over two years apart.
Claude’s 40% alternative is a repeat of the 2018 crash, which bottomed once, recovered a little, and then fell for another 15 months. If this cycle follows that shape instead of 2022’s sharp turn, XRP would fall below the June low later in the year, with the final bottom between $0.85 and $0.95 sometime between September and November. The model gives almost no weight to anything below $0.75.
When Does the XRP Crash End?
XRP could still fall below $1 and bottom lower before this crash ends. The Senate’s next window to move the CLARITY Act, the bill that would write XRP’s legal status into law, comes in September, and the Fed makes its next interest rate decision in the same month.
At 72%, this crash is still shallower than the 85% and 96% falls that ended XRP’s last two bear markets, and the one crash that looked finished at the one-year mark, in December 2018, fell for another 15 months. That is why it’s possible for XRP to still drop to $0.85 to $0.95.
That said, if the $1 floor holds through September, then Claude’s answer was right, and this crash ended on June 26 at $1.009.
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