XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) reached a cycle high of $3.65 in July 2025, and investors who bought at that July peak have watched their position lose more than 70% of its value, with the coin now trading around $1.02.
Thirteen months later, XRP needs a 194% gain to reclaim the $3 level, which is achievable given XRP’s history of sudden and explosive rallies. However, the coin has lost more than half its value over the past twelve months. With about five months left in 2026, can the XRP price realistically reach $3 before the end of Q4?
How the XRP Price Has Performed Since its $3.65 July 2025 Cycle High
XRP traded at $3.65 on July 17, 2025, driven by news of Ripple and the SEC potentially dismissing their respective appeals in the Second Circuit and exchanges like Coinbase relisting the coin. However, this regulatory clarity couldn’t sustain XRP’s rally. The coin posted an 8.15% loss in August as traders took profits.
XRP tried to stabilize with a 2% gain in September, but that was soon canceled by the crypto crash on October 10, which wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions and pushed investors away from high-risk assets like XRP. XRP fell from $2.84 to $1.84 between October and December 2025, marking a 35% decline over that period.
Despite an XRP ETF launch that saw the funds pull in $1.17 billion between November and December 2025, XRP traded in negative territory entering 2026. The XRP price dropped by 27% in Q1 as the U.S. and Iran conflicts intensified, with the coin recording six consecutive monthly losses for the first time since 2014. The coin gained 2.13% in April on expectations of a markup date on the CLARITY Act by the Senate Banking Committee, but further losses in May (-2.64%) and June (-22.1%) erased that momentum.
XRP’s price continues to struggle in Q3 despite the CLARITY Act clearing the Senate Banking Committee. With nearly half of Q3 behind us, XRP trades at $1.02 after repeated failed attempts to hold above the $1.44-$1.45 break-even zone.
Two Factors Must Align for XRP Over the Next 5 Months
XRP’s market cap needs to grow from $63.9 billion to around $188 billion for the coin’s value to reach $3. While this kind of move isn’t new for XRP, these two factors could improve the coin’s chances of reaching that price target over the next five months.
CLARITY Act
The passage of the CLARITY Act remains XRP’s most important catalyst in 2026. After the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee, XRP rallied to $1.50, but has since given up those gains as selling pressure intensified.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion to proceed the CLARITY Act bill—which is a procedural step that allows the Senate to begin debate—on August 8 before the chamber adjourned for the August recess, with September 15 scheduled for a cloture vote on the motion to proceed after the Senate returns on September 14.
Republicans hold 53 seats and therefore need at least seven Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote threshold necessary to invoke cloture, while the remaining disagreements on stablecoin risks for banks and Democrats’ proposed ethics rules must be resolved before any floor vote on the bill occurs.
If the Senate clears all procedural hurdles and later passes the bill, the XRP price could gain enough momentum to reclaim $2, which is a 96% gain from current levels. That would improve its chances of reaching $3 in Q4 2026.
XRP ETF Inflows
XRP’s ETF momentum has weakened after pulling in $1.17 billion between November and December 2025. XRP ETF inflows plunged by roughly 97% to $15.59 million in January as the broader crypto market battled negative sentiment. In February, XRP ETF inflows nearly quadrupled to $58.09 million before recording its first monthly outflow in March (-$31.16M).
Between April and July 2026, XRP ETF performance has been mixed. The products pulled in $81.59 million in April and $131.94 million in May as the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee. However, inflows have since dropped to $59.46 million in June and $27.29 million in July.
For XRP’s price to meaningfully recover, monthly inflows need to return to Q4 2025 levels or at least $300 million over the next five months. As ETF products reduce available supply, they could create the buying pressure needed to boost the XRP price toward $3.
Can the XRP Price Trade Around $3 Before the End of Q4?
XRP can trade around $3 by December, but that now depends on what happens after the Senate’s September 15 cloture vote. If the bill clears that procedural hurdle, it would allow debate to begin, but lawmakers still need to resolve disagreements over ethics rules and stablecoin provisions before the CLARITY Act can reach a final vote.
Even with the CLARITY Act passage, monthly XRP ETF inflows need to return to around $300 million for XRP to reach $3 with sustained demand. Neither has happened this year, and both happening over the next five months seems unlikely.
Realistically, the XRP price could trade above $2 by year-end if the Senate passes the bill early in Q4 and ETF inflows recover to even half of the $300 million monthly target. That move represents a 96% gain from today, and would be XRP’s strongest performance over the last twelve months.
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