XRP Price Prediction: What Price Will XRP Hit in August?

XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) traded at $1.85 at the start of the year and rallied to $2.41 in the first week of January. But that remains the highest level the cryptocurrency has reached all year, as it has spent the rest of the year giving back the gains and losing about 43% of its value.

The XRP price has dropped month after month, hitting a low of $1.009 on June 26, and has been stuck between $1 and $1.18 since late June. XRP enters August at $1.06, with the $1 support the only level bulls have successfully defended so far this year. So, what price will XRP hit in August?

History Says August Is the Month XRP Goes Nowhere

August is the flattest month XRP has ever recorded, averaging a return of just 0.43%. The token has closed the month lower for four straight years, which makes this the longest active losing streak of any month in its history. Last August alone, the XRP price dropped by 8%.

What’s baffling is that the flat stretch arrives right after XRP’s most dependable month, which underdelivered this year. July has closed in the green every year since 2020, rising about 10% on averageAlthough this July made it the seventh consecutive year XRP has closed the month positive, the coin gained a measly 2%, closing the month at $1.06 with a $1.04 starting price.

Meanwhile, the 0.43% average gain in August hides how XRP usually trades for the month. XRP jumped 52% in August 2021 and fell 8% last year, and the near-zero average only exists because the big up years and the down years cancel each other out. XRP can still move plenty in August, but it would need a catalyst.

XRP’s Only Major Catalyst in August Is the Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting

The events XRP bulls spent the year waiting for have slipped to September. The Senate set aside the CLARITY Act on July 27 to clear other business before its recess. So, the bill that would permanently classify XRP as a commodity under federal law still can’t get the vote institutions want before lawmakers return in the fall. The Fed’s calendar is just as empty, with no meeting in August and the next interest rate decision not due until September 16.

Meanwhile, the buyers XRP would normally lean on have slowed to a trickle. Spot XRP ETFs recorded zero flows on 11 of July’s 22 trading days and took in $27.29 million for the whole month per SoSoValue data, against the $666 million the same funds gathered in their first month of trading in November 2025.

The only XRP-specific event on August’s calendar is the escrow release, when Ripple unlocks 1 billion XRP as it does on the first of every month. However, the release has stopped moving the price, with several of this year’s unlocks passing with barely a reaction, since Ripple locks most of the tokens straight back into escrow anyway.

That leaves the macro calendar, which has two dates that could move the token. The first is the July inflation report on August 12. With the Fed holding rates while inflation runs at 3.5% against its 2% target, a hot reading would push the Fed’s rate cuts further away while a cool one would bring them closer, and lower rates are what send investors back into risky assets like XRP.

Then Jackson Hole runs from August 27 to 29, and this year the Kansas City Fed set the theme as “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,” which puts the month’s one macro stage directly on XRP’s home turf. Chair Kevin Warsh said at his July 29 press conference that his keynote is still “a blank piece of paper,” so traders have nothing to price in yet. And with so little on the calendar to hold the price up, the question left is why the XRP price isn’t lower already.

XRP Hasn’t Been This Oversold Since It Traded at 29 Cents

The XRP price isn’t lower because most of the people who wanted out are already gone. The token’s weekly momentum readings have fallen to levels seen only once before, at the 2022 bottom when XRP traded near $0.29, and readings that extreme show up after selling has run for months.

Moreover, XRP held on exchanges has fallen to about 1.6 billion tokens, its lowest level in seven years and roughly half the 3.76 billion that was parked there in October 2025. Coins on an exchange are coins positioned to be sold, so with half of them gone in nine months, far less supply can hit the market. The number of XRP deposits arriving at Binance each month has also dropped to its lowest rate ever recorded per CryptoQuant data.

Then again, the holders who stayed are also underwater, with roughly 60% of the circulating supply held at a loss against an average cost near $1.48. Numbers like that have historically appeared near the final washout of a decline, because people holding losses that deep have mostly decided they aren’t selling.

However, sellers running out is only half of what a rally needs, because a price only climbs when buyers show up, and July’s ETF flows show how few are buying right now. So the $1 support can keep holding without the XRP price going anywhere.

What Price Will XRP Hit in August?

XRP would most likely spend August between $1.00 and $1.18 and finish near $1.10. That call assumes Bitcoin holds its floor above $58,000, because XRP has not traded independently of Bitcoin all year.

However, a hot inflation report on August 12 or a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole could crack the $1 support and send XRP toward $0.85-$0.90, the next levels below it. A dovish surprise from Warsh could push the price to test the $1.18 to $1.20 resistance that has capped it since June.

Whatever August delivers, September is where the bigger moves wait, with the Senate back to consider the CLARITY Act and the Fed’s next rate decision due on September 16. If XRP holds the $1 support through August, the price enters that month with its floor intact, but if $1 breaks in a quiet August, XRP would be falling with nothing to push it higher.

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