Will XRP (Ripple) Recover by the End of September?
XRP just erased most of its best monthly gain since 2021 in a matter of days, and two events in the next 48 hours will determine whether the token finds a floor or breaks down further.
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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) trades near $1.27, down 13.8% in the past 24 hours and 25.3% below its August 22 high of $1.70. August was XRP’s best month since 2021, with a 28.5% gain, but September has wiped out most of that advance and pushed the decline even further. With 16 days left in the month, the outlook has deteriorated sharply in just 24 hours.
From $1.27, XRP needs an 18.1% gain to reach $1.50, 33.9% to reclaim $1.70, and 44.9% to return to its January 1 starting price at $1.84. Those levels are now much farther away, and whether XRP can recover will depend on two events over the next 48 hours.
Where XRP Stands With 16 Days Left
XRP has fallen below its 200-day MA at $1.355, putting it 6.3% below that level, and is now 2.7% below the 20-day EMA at $1.3055. The 50-day EMA at $1.2112 is the main support left, sitting 4.6% below the current price.
Above, XRP faces resistance at $1.40–$1.41, followed by $1.47–$1.52 and $1.66–$1.70. On the downside, $1.33 and $1.30 have already broken. The next support is $1.23, with $1.21 below it. The August 17 low of $0.9877 is now 28.6% away, compared with a 49% cushion before the sell-off.
Derivatives had warned of a large move. Funding fell to negative 0.0094%, its lowest since June 28, while Bollinger Bands tightened to their narrowest range in 236 days. That compression has now resolved sharply to the downside.
The Clarity Act Just Added More Pressure to XRP
On Tuesday, September 15, the Senate blocked the cloture vote on the Clarity Act, falling short of the 60 votes needed to move the bill forward. Republicans had released a revised version on Sunday with new ethics restrictions aimed at addressing Democratic concerns over public officials profiting from crypto ventures, but the changes were not enough to overcome the remaining opposition.
For XRP, the vote removes a near-term regulatory catalyst that traders had been watching closely. The bill would establish clearer rules for digital assets and define the roles of the SEC and CFTC. Its failure to advance leaves that framework unresolved while XRP is already trading below several key technical levels.
The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision is now the next major test. XRP has already weakened as rate-hike expectations increased, so the Fed’s guidance and updated rate projections could matter as much as the decision itself.
U.S. spot XRP funds recorded $0 in net inflows on September 11, after taking in $12.29 million on September 8 and $5.14 million on September 9. With regulatory momentum stalled and ETF demand fading, XRP has fewer near-term catalysts to counter the selling pressure.
XRP Has Reasons to Recover, But the Odds Are Getting Harder
Santiment data shows XRP has moved in the opposite direction from August in seven of the past eight years. The pattern was especially clear after strong August gains: September fell 14% in 2020 and 19.6% in 2021 after August finished higher. With XRP up 28.5% in August, September was already facing a bearish seasonal setup before this latest sell-off.
On-chain data also shows some holders have been taking profits. Wallets holding XRP for three to six months reduced their share of supply from 6.41% to 5.76% during the rally, suggesting some mid-term holders sold as prices rose. Institutional demand provides the main counterpoint. XRP ETFs attracted strong inflows in August, while Goldman holds roughly $87 million in XRP exposure and Schwab has disclosed XRP ETFs as repo collateral.
The problem is that these positives are competing with weaker near-term conditions. Higher rates tend to put more pressure on altcoins, while new XRP ETF products have been delayed until October. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has also failed three times to reclaim $80,000, and XRP’s close relationship with Bitcoin makes it harder for the token to sustain a rally on its own.
XRP’s Recovery Path Just Got Much Harder
XRP has fallen well below the $1.30–$1.45 range from the original thesis, losing both its 200-day moving average and 20-day EMA. Reaching $1.50 now requires an 18.1% gain, roughly ten times the move needed before the sell-off.
The next major test is $1.23. A softer Fed outcome could give XRP room to recover, but the failed Clarity Act vote has removed one potential catalyst, while a rate hike or hawkish Fed could add more pressure. The $3.84 record high is now far removed from the current setup. For now, holding $1.23 matters more than chasing a return to the old peak.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
