Bitcoin Set for Its First Q3 Winning Streak Since 2012: What Can History Teach Us?
Bitcoin is chasing a Q3 winning streak it has not achieved since it traded for pocket change in 2012, and the aftermath of that last streak holds a surprising lesson for anyone betting on history to repeat.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is on track to post its first July-to-September winning streak since 2012. With July and August closed up, September is currently 8.8% higher than August’s close, with just a week left in the month. This Bitcoin winning streak is determined by monthly closes, which reflect the last trading price recorded each month, making September 30 a critical date.
The last successful streak ran from July to September 2012, when Bitcoin was trading around $10. So, what happened after that Bitcoin winning streak, and what can it tell us about Bitcoin’s current path from $85,488?
Bitcoin Has Closed July and August Higher, and September Needs to Hold $78,563
Bitcoin started July after experiencing three consecutive losing quarters, closing June at $58,524. In July, it closed at $62,826, up 7.4%. August saw a further jump, closing at $78,563, a 25% rise. With two months already showing positive gains, the focus now shifts to September.
However, September poses challenges, as Bitcoin has recorded losses in eight of the 13 Septembers since 2013, making it the least favorable month on average. To maintain the winning streak, Bitcoin needs to close September 30 above $78,563, which is 8% lower than the current price of $85,488.
Bitcoin closed at $76,145 on September 16, the day the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, but has since regained 12% over the week.
What Happened After the Last Winning Streak in 2012?
In 2012, Bitcoin’s price was around $9 in July, $10 in August, and $12 in September. However, it dipped to about $11 by October, reflecting almost a 10% drop. Anyone who viewed the streak as a positive signal on September 30 would have faced losses the following month.
The recovery began slowly, with Bitcoin closing at about $13 in November and around $14 in December, eventually surpassing the September close. What followed was a remarkable rally that pushed Bitcoin up to nearly $266 by April 2013, representing an astonishing 2,000% increase from its September 2012 close.
While this previous streak produced one disappointing month followed by a significant surge, it occurred only once, making it a unique case rather than a reliable trend.
The 2012 Market Had No ETFs and Was Recovering From a 90% Crash
In 2012, Bitcoin was a small market still recovering from a significant crash. After hitting around $32 in June 2011, it had plummeted to approximately $2 by November—a decline of over 90%. The winning streak in 2012 was Bitcoin regaining momentum with no futures contracts in play and trading largely confined to a single exchange, Mt. Gox.
Today, the market has changed dramatically; it now includes substantial buyers that weren’t present in 2012. Spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold about 6.3% of all Bitcoin, and they took in nearly $999 million on September 21, marking their most successful day in a year. Additionally, around 190 companies reportedly hold Bitcoin as part of their corporate treasuries as of February 2026.
Given this increased participation from institutional buyers, it’s important to recognize that a pattern established in a market worth about $125 million in 2012 may not apply to today’s market of about $1.7 trillion. The 2012 streak serves as a historical reference, not a predictive model.
Will Bitcoin Follow the Same Path as After 2012?
In conclusion, while the current winning streak may indicate growing strength, it is not a guaranteed predictor of future performance. Bitcoin has closed positive for two months and holds an 8% cushion heading into historically its poorest-performing month. Moreover, ETF buyers today could provide additional support that was lacking in 2012.
However, it’s vital to remember that this is based on one year in a significantly smaller market, and what followed also started with a downturn. If Bitcoin closes September above $78,563 and maintains that upward trajectory into October, it could avoid the dip seen after the 2012 streak. In such a case, the record of $126,198 achieved in October 2025, which is 48% above the current price of $85,488, would set the next challenge. Conversely, if September closes below $78,563, the winning streak would end before it truly counted.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
