Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Set for Its First Q3 Winning Streak Since 2012: What Can History Teach Us?

Bitcoin is chasing a Q3 winning streak it has not achieved since it traded for pocket change in 2012, and the aftermath of that last streak holds a surprising lesson for anyone betting on history to repeat.

By Sam Daodu
Published September 23, 2026, 5:24pm ET · 3 min read

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A close-up of a golden Bitcoin physical coin stands in the foreground, with its reflective surface visible on the black table beneath. In the blurred background, a digital trading chart with a dark grid shows numerous green and red candlestick bars indicating market activity, accompanied by a curving yellow trend line.
A physical Bitcoin coin is set against a backdrop of a digital trading chart, illustrating the often volatile and dynamic nature of cryptocurrency price movements. © Inspiration GP / Shutterstock.com

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is on track to post its first July-to-September winning streak since 2012. With July and August closed up, September is currently 8.8% higher than August’s close, with just a week left in the month. This Bitcoin winning streak is determined by monthly closes, which reflect the last trading price recorded each month, making September 30 a critical date.

The last successful streak ran from July to September 2012, when Bitcoin was trading around $10. So, what happened after that Bitcoin winning streak, and what can it tell us about Bitcoin’s current path from $85,488?

Bitcoin Has Closed July and August Higher, and September Needs to Hold $78,563

Businessman man and Stack Of Coins with growing income profit graph of Cryptocurrency bitcoin port. Investor put coin step, investment, saving, banking in 2026 concept.

totojang1977 / Shutterstock.com

Bitcoin started July after experiencing three consecutive losing quarters, closing June at $58,524. In July, it closed at $62,826, up 7.4%. August saw a further jump, closing at $78,563, a 25% rise. With two months already showing positive gains, the focus now shifts to September.

However, September poses challenges, as Bitcoin has recorded losses in eight of the 13 Septembers since 2013, making it the least favorable month on average. To maintain the winning streak, Bitcoin needs to close September 30 above $78,563, which is 8% lower than the current price of $85,488.

Bitcoin closed at $76,145 on September 16, the day the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, but has since regained 12% over the week.

What Happened After the Last Winning Streak in 2012?

Bitcoin with blue and red lights with red crashing market volatility of crypto trading with technical graph, red candlesticks going down without resistance, market fear and downtrend.

Artit Wongpradu / Shutterstock.com

In 2012, Bitcoin’s price was around $9 in July, $10 in August, and $12 in September. However, it dipped to about $11 by October, reflecting almost a 10% drop. Anyone who viewed the streak as a positive signal on September 30 would have faced losses the following month.

The recovery began slowly, with Bitcoin closing at about $13 in November and around $14 in December, eventually surpassing the September close. What followed was a remarkable rally that pushed Bitcoin up to nearly $266 by April 2013, representing an astonishing 2,000% increase from its September 2012 close.

While this previous streak produced one disappointing month followed by a significant surge, it occurred only once, making it a unique case rather than a reliable trend.

The 2012 Market Had No ETFs and Was Recovering From a 90% Crash

A close-up, high-angle view of a silver laptop keyboard. One key, labeled 'ETF' in white text, is distinctly blue, contrasting with the surrounding black keys that have white letters and symbols. The keys appear slightly backlit.

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In 2012, Bitcoin was a small market still recovering from a significant crash. After hitting around $32 in June 2011, it had plummeted to approximately $2 by November—a decline of over 90%. The winning streak in 2012 was Bitcoin regaining momentum with no futures contracts in play and trading largely confined to a single exchange, Mt. Gox.

Today, the market has changed dramatically; it now includes substantial buyers that weren’t present in 2012. Spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold about 6.3% of all Bitcoin, and they took in nearly $999 million on September 21, marking their most successful day in a year. Additionally, around 190 companies reportedly hold Bitcoin as part of their corporate treasuries as of February 2026.

Given this increased participation from institutional buyers, it’s important to recognize that a pattern established in a market worth about $125 million in 2012 may not apply to today’s market of about $1.7 trillion. The 2012 streak serves as a historical reference, not a predictive model.

Will Bitcoin Follow the Same Path as After 2012?

In conclusion, while the current winning streak may indicate growing strength, it is not a guaranteed predictor of future performance. Bitcoin has closed positive for two months and holds an 8% cushion heading into historically its poorest-performing month. Moreover, ETF buyers today could provide additional support that was lacking in 2012.

However, it’s vital to remember that this is based on one year in a significantly smaller market, and what followed also started with a downturn. If Bitcoin closes September above $78,563 and maintains that upward trajectory into October, it could avoid the dip seen after the 2012 streak. In such a case, the record of $126,198 achieved in October 2025, which is 48% above the current price of $85,488, would set the next challenge. Conversely, if September closes below $78,563, the winning streak would end before it truly counted.

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Sam Daodu

Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.

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