Will XRP Overtake Ethereum? Exploring What It Would Take to Flip ETH by Market Cap
XRP has surged nearly 50% in three months and flippening chatter is louder than ever, but the math reveals a mountain of obstacles standing between XRP and Ethereum's market cap throne.
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Ethereum currently has a market value about 3.5 times higher than that of XRP. To surpass Ethereum, XRP needs to increase its market cap by approximately $236 billion. As of September 29, 2026, XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is valued at $95 billion, while Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) stands at around $331 billion.
At $1.51 per XRP and $2,711 per Ethereum, XRP has risen 46% over the past 90 days. This surge has sparked renewed discussions among XRP holders about the potential “flippening,” the moment one cryptocurrency’s market cap surpasses another’s. So, is it realistic for XRP to overtake Ethereum? Let’s break it down.
Ethereum Is Worth About 3.5 Times as Much as XRP
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Currently, XRP accounts for about 3.3% of the total cryptocurrency market, while Ethereum holds about 11.4%. For XRP to surpass Ethereum, its market cap would need to more than triple. This calculation assumes that Ethereum’s value remains unchanged.
With 62.9 billion XRP tokens currently in circulation, XRP would need to trade around $5.26 to match Ethereum’s market cap, representing an increase of roughly 250% from its current price of $1.51. Achieving this would surpass XRP’s all-time high of around $3.84, reached in January 2018. If XRP reached $5.26, a $1,000 investment at $1.51 would grow to roughly $3,490.
While a single XRP at $1.51 may seem inexpensive next to Ethereum at $2,711, remember that XRP has about 515 times more coins in circulation. This discrepancy in the number of tokens makes the price per coin less informative when assessing overall value.
Ripple’s Escrow Releases Make the Gap Harder to Close
Out of a total supply of 100 billion XRP tokens, only 62.9 billion are currently available in the market. Ripple, the company behind XRP, can release up to 1 billion additional tokens each month from escrow, which translates to roughly $1.5 billion at today’s price. This means buyers must absorb these new tokens just to maintain XRP’s current price level before it can rise toward Ethereum’s value.
Each 1-cent increase in XRP’s price adds around $629 million to its market cap. As the supply grows, it requires more capital to maintain the same price, especially as spot XRP ETFs and other holders must account for every new token released.
On the other hand, Ethereum has no maximum supply but issues coins at a much slower rate—with around 122 million coins in circulation—making it less burdened by new supply than XRP.
Ethereum Has Outgained XRP Over 90 Days and in 2026
Over the past 90 days, Ethereum has risen 71%, outpacing XRP’s 46% growth. This means that Ethereum has widened its lead during a period that has spurred talk of the flippening. In 2026, Ethereum is down only 9.5%, compared to XRP’s 17.6% drop.
Currently, XRP trades about 59% below its peak of approximately $3.65 in July 2025, while Ethereum is around 45% below its all-time high of $4,946 from August 2025. Thus, Ethereum has retained a larger portion of its earlier gains, with money flowing into Ether ETFs providing an additional pool of investors.
Can XRP Overtake Ethereum by Market Cap?
The likelihood of XRP overtaking Ethereum in the next few years seems slim. XRP would need to increase its market cap by about $236 billion while Ethereum holds steady. It also needs to trade above its 2018 peak and manage the ongoing releases from Ripple’s escrow.
Even if XRP makes a strong recovery and exceeds its 2025 high, it can still fall short of Ethereum in overall market cap. However, if XRP’s market share increases steadily from 3.3% towards Ethereum’s 11.4%, the gap may start to close. If XRP reaches $3.65—about 142% higher than its current value—while Ethereum remains below its record of $4,946, that could provide the initial proof needed to ignite further discussion about the flippening.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
