Arbitrum Is Up More Than 100% Since August, and 92.6 Million ARB Unlocks Every Month Until Early 2027. Can the Rally Survive the Supply?

Arbitrum (CRYPTO:ARB) has grown impressively, climbing about 159% over the past 60 days to about 20 cents as of October 2, 2026. This marks a significant increase since early August. However, every token unlock adds 92.6 million ARB to the market each month, and this process will continue until early 2027.

At the current price, each monthly release amounts to about $19 million, representing 1.3% of the ARB already in circulation. The big question is whether this rapid price increase can be sustained while new tokens consistently hit the market.

Standard Chartered’s $10 Target and Robinhood Chain Sparked ARB’s Rally

The recent surge can be traced directly to some key endorsements. On September 14, Geoff Kendrick, who leads digital assets research at Standard Chartered, set an ambitious $10 target for ARB by the end of 2030—about 70 times its price of 13 cents on that day. The market responded positively, pushing ARB up by roughly 70% to 22 cents within four days.

Kendrick’s optimism is linked to the Robinhood Chain, which is built on Arbitrum’s technology. Robinhood sends 10% of the chain’s revenue back to Arbitrum, with 8% going to the Arbitrum treasury and 2% allocated to a developer fund.

ARB is a governance token. This means that holders have a say in how the treasury funds are spent, but they do not have a direct claim on the generated revenue. Therefore, while the treasury can grow, ARB holders will only benefit if they vote to use that revenue in a way that supports the token’s value.

Arbitrum Unlocks 92.6 Million ARB Every Month Until Early 2027

Token unlocks release coins that were previously held back from trading. These typically include tokens set aside for the project’s team and early investors. Each monthly unlock will distribute approximately 48.5 million ARB to investors, 32.1 million to the team, and 12 million to the Arbitrum treasury.

The next unlock is expected in mid-October, followed by additional releases in November, December, January, and February. Currently, around 463 million to 556 million ARB remain locked, valued at approximately $93 million to $111 million at a price of 20 cents. The disparity stems from differing views on whether the unlock schedule ends in February or March 2027.

Most of these tokens were allocated to insiders at prices far below the current market rate. This means each unlock could create selling pressure during price rallies. Still, the $19 million in new supply is small compared to ARB’s trading volume, which reached about $125 million on September 14. Moreover, Arbitrum has previously handled a significant unlock of around 1.1 billion ARB in March 2024.

ARB’s Rally Is a Rebound From Its June 2026 Low

It’s crucial to view these gains in context. ARB hit an all-time low of around 7 cents on June 26, 2026, so its rise to 20 cents represents an impressive recovery of roughly 184%.

However, in the broader picture, ARB is down about 51% over the past year and is currently trading about 91% below its all-time high of $2.39 in January 2024. Its overall gain for 2026 remains a modest 10%, despite a summer rally that boosted Ethereum layer-2 tokens across the board.

Recently, momentum has cooled, with ARB dropping about 5% in the week ending September 30, indicating that some investors may have taken profits ahead of the upcoming October release.

Can Arbitrum’s Rally Survive the Token Unlock Schedule?

Arbitrum’s current rally could likely absorb the fresh supply, as each $19 million token release is a small fraction of daily trading. However, sustaining this upward momentum may prove challenging, as insiders will have the opportunity to sell monthly. Without any direct revenue claims from the Robinhood Chain, the risk increases if demand wanes.

If buyers retreat, ARB could potentially drop back to its June low near 7 cents, erasing around 65% of its current value.

The immediate test is whether ARB can hold 20 cents through the mid-October unlock. If Arbitrum’s governance participants decide to allocate Robinhood Chain revenue towards ARB or if Robinhood reports impressive revenue figures, buyers might continue to support each monthly unlock on the way toward a potential $1.

Conversely, if ARB slips below 20 cents and stays there through the November release, it suggests that the supply increase is exerting more pressure than anticipated.

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