Bitcoin’s Next Move: Will It Hit $98,000 or Drop to $77,000 First?
Bitcoin is trading within striking distance of two critical price levels that analysts say could send it sharply in opposite directions, and the signals from ETF flows, options traders, and on-chain data are pointing toward the same outcome.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading about $300 above a critical threshold, Jesse Marre of the Hilbert Group noted as of October 8, 2026. This level could trigger a decline to $77,000. Conversely, Bitcoin is approximately $4,400 below the point Marre says could launch a rise to $98,000. Given these conditions, a move toward $77,000 appears more likely right now.
Currently priced at $82,969, Bitcoin has fallen 1.5% in the last 24 hours and 1.3% over the past week. This marks a significant retreat of 34.2% from its all-time high of $126,080. So, which price point will Bitcoin touch first, $98,000 or $77,000?
Hilbert Group’s Jesse Marre Puts Bitcoin’s Range at $82,700 to $87,400
Bitcoin has been fluctuating within a specific trading range, where prices bounce between established highs and lows. Buyers tend to enter the market near the bottom of this range, while sellers tend to exit near the top.
Jesse Marre, a senior portfolio manager at the Hilbert Group, identified this range, stating, “Bitcoin has been trading in a range, and the top of it at 87,400 is the level to watch. A break above could open a move toward 94,000 to 98,000. A drop below 82,700 would likely take it to 77,000.”
Traders pay close attention to these price edges because many orders tend to cluster around them. For instance, some investors place stop-loss orders—automatic sell orders set below the identified support level—to minimize losses. Conversely, buyers looking to take advantage of a breakout set orders above the resistance level. A breach of either edge tends to trigger those orders, further influencing the price movement.
Additionally, leveraged traders can exacerbate the trend because exchanges may forcibly close their borrowed positions if losses exceed collateral. On October 7, for example, exchanges liquidated $511 million worth of Bitcoin positions, with $418 million stemming from long positions, which only profit if prices rise.
Bitfinex Alpha’s On-Chain Data Points to the Same Bitcoin Levels
The research team at Bitfinex Alpha arrives at similar levels to Marre’s through its own on-chain data analysis. Their report, dated October 7, places Bitcoin’s yearly opening price for 2026 at $87,722, which is slightly above the current trading price and close to Marre’s upper boundary.
The report shows that nearly 769,000 BTC—about $64 billion—was purchased between $84,000 and $84,500. This price range includes the largest volume of purchases seen at any price. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just under this level. Consequently, those investors may decide to sell if the price rebounds just to break even.
On the downside, Bitfinex Alpha estimates the True Market Mean—the average price that active holders paid—is around $77,400. This figure aligns closely with Marre’s target of $77,000, demonstrating consistent views from both analysis teams.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Slow as Treasury Yields Climb Above 5%
Marre identifies some support for a potential upward movement, noting, “Options traders are starting to lean toward a breakout higher, and ETF buyers keep adding, with 240 million dollars in last week after 2.4 billion the week before.” This earlier amount reflects all crypto ETFs, while spot Bitcoin funds like the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT) accounted for roughly $241 million during the week ending October 2.
However, day-to-day purchases by fund buyers have cooled off. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds faced outflows of $90 million on October 5, followed by an inflow of $119 million on October 6, according to SoSoValue’s ETF tracker. Bitfinex Alpha’s analysis shows the average daily inflow over five sessions has dropped to just $35 million, down significantly from $342 million in mid-September.
Factors like rising bond yields are also pressuring Bitcoin’s price. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.27% on October 6, following the Federal Reserve’s rate hike on September 16. This rise means investors can earn more than 5% annually on U.S. government debt. Although Marre argues that Bitcoin could be a safer alternative given concerns about government borrowing, buyers have yet to act on that view.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will It Hit $98,000 or $77,000 First?
At this juncture, Bitcoin seems more likely to hit $77,000 before it reaches $98,000. Currently trading just $300 above Marre’s downside trigger and after two consecutive days of decline, along with sharply reduced ETF buying, a drop is the more likely outcome. If Bitcoin closes below $82,700, it could trigger stop-loss orders and set off a chain reaction, leading to a 7% drop toward the $77,000 to $77,400 support identified by both analysis teams.
On the other hand, reaching $98,000 presents a more complex scenario for buyers. They first need to hold above $82,700, then push Bitcoin back over the $84,000 cluster, and finally secure a close above $87,400 and the yearly open of $87,722—a 5.3% climb from its current position. If Bitcoin closes above $87,400 without falling below $82,700, this could change the trajectory and shift focus toward the 18% move to $98,000.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
