Bitcoin Has Closed Four Straight Weeks Above Its 50-Week Average. The Last Time It Did That It Tripled Within a Year.
A rare pattern in Bitcoin's price history has only appeared twice before, and each time it triggered a dramatic move in completely opposite directions. Which outcome the current streak mirrors could define the next year for Bitcoin holders.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has closed above its 50-week average for four straight weeks. As of October 12, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $83,369, while its 50-week average sits at $76,618. If it closes below this average, it would end this current streak.
This indicator has appeared twice in the last decade, each time producing very different outcomes. In January 2023, Bitcoin climbed above the average near $23,000 and rose 217% to a high of around $73,000 by March 2024. Conversely, in April 2019, it rebounded to near $5,000 and initially surged 170% to about $13,800 by June, but then fell about 50% to about $6,500 by December of that same year.
So what does a fourth consecutive weekly close above the average suggest about what might happen next for Bitcoin holders?
What Bitcoin’s 50-Week Average Shows and Why Weekly Closes Count
The 50-week average is calculated by averaging Bitcoin’s closing prices for the past 50 weeks. It helps smooth out price fluctuations, giving a clearer picture of longer-term trends. When Bitcoin stays above this average, it indicates that buyers are dominating the market. If it trades below, it suggests sellers are in control.
The ‘weekly close’ refers to the last price at the end of each trading week. Traders typically regard this price as more significant than daily closes because it reduces market noise. Since Bitcoin is traded around the clock, a sudden price spike on a single day can briefly push the price above or below the average before reverting back. A weekly close counts only if Bitcoin is above the line when the week ends.
When Bitcoin achieves four consecutive weekly closes above this average, it sets a higher standard. A single close might be a temporary bounce, but four consecutive ones show buyers have consistently held the price up.
Bitcoin’s Two Earlier Signals Ended Very Differently
The 2023 signal is often touted as a success story. When Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week average near $23,000 in January 2023, it skyrocketed 217% to roughly $73,000 by March 2024. Those who interpreted this signal as the start of a new uptrend were vindicated.
In contrast, the 2019 signal began similarly. After regaining the average near $5,000 in April 2019, it rose to about $13,800 by June—a significant increase. However, this rally was short-lived: Bitcoin fell about 50% to about $6,500 by December, leaving those who held through the year disappointed.
Analysts attribute these differences to factors like liquidity, the amount of money flowing into riskier investments, and the timing of halving events, when the rate of new Bitcoin production is reduced. However, with only two instances to reference, these explanations remain speculative.
Bitcoin’s Current Setup Could Match Either Earlier Signal
Bitcoin is currently about 33.9% below its record high of $126,080. It has risen 8.0% over the past 30 days but fallen 3.2% in the last week. This mix of trends could indicate a scenario similar to either of the previous signals.
The 50-week average is always changing. Each week, the oldest closing price drops out of the calculation while the most recent price is included, slightly altering the average Bitcoin needs to maintain.
What Does the 50-Week Average Streak Mean for Bitcoin Holders?
This four-week streak strongly suggests Bitcoin’s trend may be shifting upward. However, it doesn’t necessarily indicate how far the price will rise or how long this trend will last. Both past signals preceded significant gains, but one of those gains was largely lost by the year’s end.
For now, holders should pay close attention. A weekly close below the average, currently around $76,618, would end the streak and suggest a shift back towards a downtrend. Until then, either a repeat of the 2023 rally or a downturn like 2019 remains possible.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
