Bitcoin Analysis: Holders Are Selling at a Loss for the Longest Stretch Since August. What Happened Last Time?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) holders continue to sell at a loss, marking their longest stretch of daily losses in about three months. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, sellers are offloading coins below $80,000, and this run of realized losses is the longest since mid-August. Glassnode notes that if Bitcoin holds above $75,000, it may mirror patterns seen after previous selling streaks.

Bitcoin is trading at $77,324, down 3.4% over the past week and 38.7% from its all-time high of $126,080, recorded on October 6, 2025. Despite this selling pressure, corporate treasuries are actively buying what sellers have chosen to offload. The critical question remains: have recent sellers correctly assessed the market, or has loss-selling reached a point that signals a bottom, as it did after the August downturn?

Recent Buyers Are Selling Bitcoin at a Loss

A realized loss occurs when coins are sold for less than the price the owner initially paid. Glassnode calculates this by comparing the price at which a coin last moved on the blockchain to the current selling price. A day of net realized losses means sellers are taking a greater dollar value in losses than in profitable sales.

Traders often view a prolonged period of loss days as a capitulation signal, suggesting that holders are giving up and selling regardless of the price. Once most individuals looking to sell have done so, the remaining supply decreases, creating potential for a price rebound. Thus, traders often interpret a long stretch of losses as a sign that a selloff is nearing its end.

The current sellers are likely those who bought recently, given that Bitcoin was priced at $86,596 on September 21 and $86,489 on October 4. Anyone who purchased during that period has been underwater for several weeks.

How This Selling Streak Compares With August’s Bottom

The last time we saw a similar trend coincided with a market bottom. On August 17, Bitcoin closed at $64,491, just after reaching its 90-day low of $62,843. By August 21, it had risen to $78,317, and about a month later, on September 17, it finished at $76,371 before climbing to $86,596 in the following days.

However, as of November 1, Bitcoin closed at $78,311, just below its $78,552 mark from August 31, meaning it has given back its entire autumn rally. The August streak proved effective because sellers took losses near the lowest prices seen in months, shortly after Bitcoin had reached a one-year low of $58,566 on June 30. In contrast, this time, sellers are offloading in the high $70,000 range, a zone Bitcoin had already rallied through in late August, suggesting these sellers may have different loss-acceptance thresholds.

This metric has some limitations. Exchanges moving funds between wallets and custodians transferring coins can also register as losses, which may extend the streak longer than what genuine investor selling would suggest, even after Glassnode applies its filters.

Moreover, this data only reveals who is selling. Most buying occurs within exchange order books and doesn’t appear on the blockchain, leaving out a crucial part of the picture regarding whether long-term holders or short-term traders are on the opposite side of these loss sales.

ETF Outflows Exceed Corporate Bitcoin Purchases

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which allow stock-market investors to buy and hold bitcoin, show buying activity that doesn’t appear on-chain and suggests a contrary trend. On October 30, these funds lost $643 million on $6.4 billion in trading volume, the heaviest volume of any day in October.

This followed a $636 million outflow on October 22, and total net assets declined from $110.8 billion on October 5 to $98.1 billion by October 30. Nonetheless, these funds can attract significant investments rapidly, as illustrated by a $528 million inflow on October 21.

Corporate treasuries continue to provide another source of demand. Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction) acquired 811 BTC for $65.5 million, averaging around $80,846 from October 26 to November 1, with total holdings now at 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451. Strive (NASDAQ: ASST) added 124 BTC during a similar timeframe at about $80,526 per coin, bringing its total to 43,124 BTC.

Although both companies bought Bitcoin at prices above the current market value, Strategy Inc.’s recent $65.5 million acquisition pales in comparison to the $643 million that exited ETFs on October 30 alone. So far this year, the company has spent $14.3 billion on Bitcoin as of October 25, making the latest weekly purchase seem modest by comparison.

Bitcoin’s Next Support Levels Are $77,223 and $75,000

Bitcoin is currently trading just below the $77,906 support level and below its 20-day average of $80,848 and 50-day average of $81,927, while still above its 200-day average of $73,153. The next support levels to watch are the October 30 close of $77,223, its 30-day low, and then the critical $75,000 mark identified by Glassnode.

Does Bitcoin Selling at a Loss Mean a Bottom Is Near?

Not just yet. Capital influencing Bitcoin’s price is still flowing out. The August streak ended near multi-month lows, allowing buyers the opportunity to push prices higher. In contrast, current selling is happening in the high $70,000s rather than near significant lows, suggesting we may not be at the bottom yet.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.