What Bitcoin Did Every Time It Fell to Its 200-Week Average
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has once again dipped to its 200-week moving average, a key line many long-term investors see as support. This average tracks Bitcoin’s weekly closes over roughly four years, filtering out day-to-day price swings. Bitcoin trades at around $68,700, following an intraday low of $67,555, its lowest daily low since August 19.
That puts Bitcoin 45.5% below its all-time high of $126,080 from October 6, 2025. While this support line has been broken before, each previous dip offers insight into what typically follows. So what did Bitcoin do every time it fell to this average?
Bitcoin Has Dropped Back to Its 200-Week Average
According to analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex, Bitcoin has closed below $75,400 for six consecutive days, roughly the average price recent buyers paid. Many of these buyers now face losses and could sell during rebounds, adding supply as Bitcoin tries to regain that level. Bitfinex says a weekly close above roughly $68,000 keeps the long-term trend intact, a setup we noted when Bitcoin slipped below what recent buyers paid.
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant puts Bitcoin about 19% below a recent peak. Selling pressure is also evident in Wall Street’s fund products, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posting $284.1 million in net outflows on November 12, their sixth consecutive day of withdrawals. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) accounted for $203.8 million of that total, over 70%. Since November 6, Bitcoin has fallen 9.6%.
Four Earlier Trips to the 200-Week Average, and What Followed Each One
Bitcoin’s weekly price record shows four instances since 2018 when it fell to or below the 200-week average. Each one led to higher prices within a year, although the timing and the size of the recovery varied.
| Episode | Low | Later Weekly or Daily Closes |
|---|---|---|
| December 2018 | $3,189 (week of December 16, 2018) | $4,203 (week of March 31, 2019); $10,880 (week of June 23, 2019) |
| March 2020 | $4,004 (week of March 15, 2020) | $9,917 (week of July 26, 2020); $13,021 (week of October 25, 2020); $26,326 (week of December 27, 2020) |
| June 2022 to early 2023 | $17,698 (week of June 19, 2022) | $16,751 (week of December 18, 2022); $26,339 (week of June 18, 2023) |
| Summer 2026 | $58,566 close (June 30, 2026) | $83,556 (September 30, 2026) |
The 2022 trip ran the longest. Bitcoin dipped even lower, to a $15,598 weekly low in the week of November 27, 2022, as the FTX collapse shook crypto. Six months after the first break, it still traded below its June 2022 weekly close of $20,555, and it didn’t post a $27,912 weekly close until the week of March 19, 2023.
In the summer of 2026, Bitcoin traded near or below the average in late June and was still slightly under it in early August, before it gained momentum and reached $86,597 on September 21.
Analysts See a Long-Term Opening and a Lower Target If the Line Breaks
Matt Cole from Strive says Bitcoin at its 200-week average, which he puts near $68,000, has historically been a solid point to add risk. However, Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, warns of a choppy market ahead. He suggests that if the 200-week average breaks, Bitcoin could target $63,000 to $66,000, down about 4% to 8%.
Even after that decline, Bitcoin would still hold above the June 30 closing low of $58,566, roughly 15% lower. Our roundup of where analysts say Bitcoin bottoms tracks how those floor calls have shifted.
History Favors Patient Holders, but Rate Hikes Could Stretch the Wait
Past episodes show that patient Bitcoin holders have been rewarded within a year of similar dips. The current environment may test that patience, with CME FedWatch showing an 88.7% probability of a December rate hike. The 2022 decline also came during rising interest rates and took several months to turn. Moreover, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs didn’t exist in 2018, 2020, or 2022, so their outflows are a new source of pressure.
If Bitcoin achieves a weekly close above $68,000, just 1% below current prices, and the outflows stop, the long-term outlook in our pieces on what one Bitcoin could be worth in 2030 and whether Bitcoin can reach $1 million could stay intact. However, if it closes a week below that level, Bitcoin could target the $63,000 to $66,000 range first.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
