Is Uptober Over for BTC? Bitcoin Is Down Nearly 4% So Far This October.
October has been kind to Bitcoin in seven of the last nine years, but a perfect storm of liquidations, inflation fears, and ETF outflows is threatening to snap a long-standing seasonal pattern with two weeks still on the clock.
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Crypto traders often call October “Uptober” because Bitcoin has historically posted strong gains during this month. However, in 2026, the trend seems to be reversing. As of October 17, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is trading at $81,497, down from $84,856 on October 1.
So far in October, Bitcoin has experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of $87,249 and a low of $79,676. With just two weeks left in October, traders are left wondering: is Uptober over, or can Bitcoin still capitalize on its historical performance for a green month?
Bitcoin Is Down Nearly 4%, and the Biggest Altcoins Have Fallen Harder
Bitcoin isn’t the only cryptocurrency facing challenges in October. The three major altcoins—Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH), XRP (CRYPTO:XRP), and Solana (CRYPTO:SOL)—have all fallen more sharply, each down over 10% since the start of the month.
| Coin | October 1 | October 17 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $84,856 | $81,497 | -4% |
| Ethereum | $2,705 | $2,428 | -10.2% |
| XRP | $1.49 | $1.31 | -12.3% |
| Solana | $118 | $105 | -11.5% |
XRP has seen the biggest drop, down 12.3%. This pattern is typical when traders reduce risk exposure, often starting with smaller coins, while Bitcoin tends to hold up better.
Bitcoin’s October Record Shows Only Two Red Months Since 2017
To gauge whether Uptober is over, look at Bitcoin’s performance in previous Octobers. A positive October means Bitcoin’s closing price will be higher than its opening price. Since 2017, there have been two red Octobers, as shown in the table below:
| October | Bitcoin Return | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 49.4% | Green |
| 2018 | -4.9% | Red |
| 2019 | 10.5% | Green |
| 2020 | 28% | Green |
| 2021 | 40.1% | Green |
| 2022 | 5.6% | Green |
| 2023 | 28.5% | Green |
| 2024 | 11% | Green |
| 2025 | -4% | Red |
Over the last nine Octobers, Bitcoin has had seven positive months and only two negative ones. 2025 broke a six-year streak of green Octobers, even as Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,296 that month. Currently, Bitcoin is trading about 23.4% lower than one year ago, highlighting how today’s market feels different for investors.
Liquidations, Inflation and ETF Outflows Pulled Bitcoin Down
To regain lost ground, Bitcoin would need to rise about 4.1% from its October 17 price of $81,497 to return to its October 1 open of $84,856. Several factors have driven its decline this month.
First, forced selling has played a significant role. On October 8, when Bitcoin’s price dipped below $81,000, exchanges liquidated $974 million in cryptocurrency positions, including $896 million in long positions. Liquidation occurs when a trader must sell a leveraged position because losses exceed their collateral. Rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions have contributed to the selling pressure.
Second, inflation concerns have weighed heavily. The Consumer Price Index, the government’s main measure of inflation, rose 0.6% in September, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7%. With the Federal Reserve having raised interest rates in September, market sentiment is influenced by anticipation of its next meeting on October 28. As of October 14, futures traders were pricing in a 47% chance of another rate hike.
Third, there has been notable fund selling, particularly from spot Bitcoin ETFs—funds that hold Bitcoin and trade like stocks. These funds saw a total outflow of $487 million on October 7, $244 million the following day, and another $261 million on October 14, before a small inflow of $5 million on October 15. Consequently, cumulative net inflows fell from approximately $57.6 billion on October 1 to $56.96 billion by October 15. This contrasts sharply with September, when these funds saw a significant inflow of $999 million on September 21 alone.
So Is Uptober Over for Bitcoin?
While Uptober isn’t officially over, Bitcoin’s chances of finishing the month positively look slim. The seven previous green Octobers since 2017 offer hope, but those months often occurred in more favorable market conditions. For Bitcoin to close October positively, it needs to stay above its low of $79,676, ETF flows must shift back to steady inflows, and the Fed must decide against raising rates on October 28.
Even if these conditions align, Bitcoin will have only three days after the Fed meeting to push past its October 1 level of $84,856. Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction), commented on October 13, saying, “I think we hit the bottom slightly below $60,000,” but Bitcoin still requires a significant increase to end the month higher. If Bitcoin closes below $84,856 on October 31, it will mark back-to-back red Octobers for the first time since at least 2017.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
