Oil Just Hit $100 a Barrel. What Happened to Bitcoin the Last Time Oil Prices Hit Three Digits?

Crude oil has crossed the $ 100-per-barrel mark for the first time since September, sparking curiosity among Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) holders who have seen $100 oil before. U.S. crude reached $102 a barrel on October 14, 2026—its highest price since mid-September—while Brent crude, the global oil standard, climbed above $106.

Bitcoin trades at $81,497, down 1.5% over the previous week but still up 6.8% over the last month. Notably, Bitcoin also traded through a similar spike in crude oil in September, which could hint at similar movements in the current landscape.

Middle East Tensions Drive Oil Prices Upward

Escalating tensions in the Middle East are driving the recent rise in oil prices. Specifically, Iran has increased its attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil transport. In addition, Ukraine has vowed to continue striking Russian refineries. The Strait of Hormuz, lying between Iran and Oman, is crucial since a significant portion of the world’s oil passes through it.

As these tensions persisted into mid-October, oil prices surged. For instance, on October 14, crude prices jumped significantly following attacks in Saudi Arabia and new strategies launched by Iran against tankers. By October 16, Brent oil continued to climb as regional pressure mounted.

Within a week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil posted a nearly $7 increase, marking a 7.3% rise. According to federal data, WTI peaked at $107 on September 15, its highest level since at least July, but then fell roughly 20% to $85 by September 25 before starting to climb again.

Bitcoin Fell as Oil Climbed in September, Then Rallied as Crude Cooled

Interestingly, Bitcoin reacted to rising oil prices in September. It closed at $81,264 on September 3, when WTI was around $93 per barrel, but then fell 7% to $75,584 on September 15, coinciding with oil’s peak. During that particular trading session, Bitcoin dipped to as low as $74,888.

On September 17, when WTI oil was priced at $103, Bitcoin closed higher at $76,349. As oil prices retreated the next day, Bitcoin bounced back to close at $80,875 on September 18, as WTI eased to about $101. By September 21, when WTI fell to $97, Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $87,397, marking its best performance of that month.

Despite a minor cooling off afterward, Bitcoin held most of its gains, closing at $84,849 on October 1, while WTI hovered just below $100. However, once oil climbed back over $100, Bitcoin fell to $81,566 on October 14, the same day WTI reached about $102. If history is any guide, Bitcoin’s next upward movement may hinge on when oil prices begin to decline again.

Oil Moves Bitcoin Through Inflation and Investor Appetite

High oil prices often feed into inflation. When crude becomes expensive, it raises costs for gasoline, shipping, and nearly everything that requires transportation, thereby exerting inflationary pressure. This elevated inflation typically keeps borrowing costs higher, which can make speculative assets like Bitcoin less appealing to many investors.

Additionally, when geopolitical tensions drive oil prices up, risk appetite tends to decline. Investors often shy away from volatile assets, and during these times, Bitcoin frequently trades in tandem with tech stocks. For example, on October 16, tech stocks sold off sharply as oil prices surged.

Nevertheless, the relationship between oil and Bitcoin can also diverge. Some investors turn to Bitcoin as an inflation hedge because of its fixed supply. A prolonged spike in oil prices that amplifies costs could eventually attract new buyers to Bitcoin. However, in September, Bitcoin behaved more like a speculative asset, declining as oil prices surged and recovering as they receded.

Could $100 Oil Drag Bitcoin Lower This Time?

The previous trend suggests yes, but the downturn lasted only as long as the oil-price spike. Bitcoin dropped to $75,584 on the day WTI peaked, then rebounded about 16% to $87,397 by September 21, when crude fell below $100. Bitcoin is currently trading at $81,497, while WTI is around $102 and Brent is above $106. Although Bitcoin has gained 26.1% over the past 60 days, it remains down 6.8% for 2026.

News from the Strait of Hormuz could influence Bitcoin as much as any crypto-related headlines in the coming weeks. Investors should watch Bitcoin’s September 17 close of $76,349. If oil stays above $100 and Bitcoin closes below that threshold, Bitcoin might repeat its September decline and revisit the $74,888 low from that time.

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