Saudi Arabia Canceled Europe’s Oil Cargoes, WTI Hit $103, and Treasury Yields Reached 5%. Here’s Why Bitcoin Fell With Bonds

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades near $75,000, down roughly 4% over the past 24 hours. The coin’s session low came as WTI crude jumped to $103.60 and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5%, its highest level since 2007. Bitcoin moved with the bond market as rising oil prices revived inflation concerns.

The oil move began after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following Houthi attacks and canceled September cargoes for European refiners. As supply tightened, markets quickly priced in fresh inflation risk, pushing Treasury yields higher and weighing on risk assets such as Bitcoin. 

The Senate also failed to advance the CLARITY Act, falling short of the 60 votes needed for cloture. The 49–50 vote triggered about $288 million in long-position liquidations, adding to Bitcoin’s decline and showing that crypto-specific developments were also driving the sell-off. 

Why the Saudi Pipeline Closure Shook Oil Markets

Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline, which carries crude from the Persian Gulf to Red Sea export terminals and bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, after attacks by Houthi and Iran-backed forces on tanker traffic. The closure canceled September cargoes for some European refiners and added fresh uncertainty around regional oil supplies.

WTI rose from $99.99 at the prior week’s close, and moved to $102.12 at the next session’s open, then reached $105.83 by Tuesday’s close. Brent climbed from $104.47 to $108.75 over the same period. WTI was already at $97.26 on September 9, up 16.1% from a month earlier, so the pipeline closure added to an oil market that was already under pressure.

The Energy Secretary said the disruption could last only days, but Saudi Aramco has not given a restart timeline. That uncertainty matters because traders must account for the possibility that the outage lasts longer, keeping oil prices elevated and adding to inflation concerns.

Rising Oil Prices Create Pressure for Bitcoin Investors

Higher oil prices are adding to inflation concerns, while August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% traders expected. The hotter inflation reading sharply increased expectations of a Fed rate hike, with the odds rising from roughly 70% to 90% immediately after the CPI release. Treasury yields then climbed, with the 10-year yield reaching 5% on September 15 and the 30-year hitting 5.36%, its highest level in 19 years.

Higher yields can weigh on Bitcoin because they make safer assets more attractive. As the risk-free rate rises, investors may demand higher returns from riskier assets such as Bitcoin, putting pressure on prices alongside stocks and bonds.

Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold reached about 0.50 in early September, its highest since 2020. Gold also fell during the same period despite geopolitical tension, showing that higher rates weighed on both assets. As Bitcoin falls, forced liquidations can add to the pressure when leveraged positions are closed.

What It Would Take for Bitcoin to Decouple

Bitcoin could face less pressure if the Saudi pipeline reopens or Iran-Gulf talks resume around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Either development could reduce the risk premium in oil prices, with Brent potentially falling by about $5 based on the gap between prices before and after the pipeline closure.

A decline in Treasury yields could also ease pressure on Bitcoin, particularly if the US Treasury uses a buyback to add liquidity to the long end of the bond market. Unlike quantitative easing, Treasury buybacks use funds raised at the short end to purchase older, longer-term bonds, helping reshape the yield curve without creating new bank reserves.

The Fed’s September 16 decision is another key event because markets are already pricing in a rate hike. The federal funds target is 3.50%–3.75%, with markets pricing a hike to 3.75%–4.00%, while the 10-year yield sits at 5%, showing pressure is concentrated in longer-term rates. If the Fed delivers a smaller hike than markets expect, the 10-year yield could fall below 4.8%, easing some pressure on Bitcoin.

The Chinese president’s September 24 visit could also affect the risk premium around Middle East oil supplies, depending on how developments involving Iran unfold. A reduction in tensions could ease concerns about supply disruptions, while renewed tensions could keep oil prices and inflation risks elevated.

Bitcoin Is Trading Like a Bond, Not a Hedge 

Bitcoin’s recent decline shows how closely it tracks oil prices and Treasury yields. The pipeline closure pushed oil higher, rising yields pressured risk assets, and Bitcoin followed. Until Brent falls below $100 and the 10-year yield drops below 4.8%, Bitcoin is likely to remain sensitive to the same macro pressures.

A pipeline reopening, progress on Hormuz shipping talks, or a less hawkish Fed could ease that pressure. If those catalysts fail to emerge, the September 24 Beijing visit becomes another key event for oil and geopolitical risk. 

For now, Bitcoin is responding to macro pressures and crypto-specific developments, including the CLARITY Act’s failure, making the sell-off difficult to attribute to a single factor. 

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