Robinhood’s Crypto Revenue Fell 38% Last Quarter. Can It Bounce Back in Q3?
Robinhood's crypto revenue has been sliding for three straight quarters, but a surge in trading activity toward the end of Q3 hints that a turnaround may be closer than analysts expected. The question is whether it will be enough to…
In Q2 2026, Robinhood’s (NASDAQ:HOOD | HOOD Price Prediction) crypto revenue fell 38% year over year to $100 million. This marks the company’s third consecutive quarter of decline. Robinhood is projected to release its third-quarter results after the market closes on October 27, though the exact date is not yet confirmed.
Despite the downturn, crypto trading activity picked up in August and September. Did this increase help reverse the decline in Robinhood’s crypto revenue?
Robinhood’s Crypto Revenue Fell While Equities and Event Contracts Grew
Crypto revenue accounted for just 7.6% of Robinhood’s $1.31 billion in total revenue in Q2. A year prior, crypto played a much larger role in the company’s earnings. In Q3 2025, crypto revenue soared over 300% to $268 million, accounting for 21% of total sales.
Robinhood’s crypto revenue depends on trading activity and cryptocurrency prices, as the company primarily earns from customer trades. After the crypto boom peaked, crypto revenue fell to $221 million in Q4 2025, $134 million in Q1, and $100 million in Q2.
However, other business segments continued to expand. In Q2, revenue from equities surged by 95%, and event contracts—financial products tied to specific events—generated $156 million, surpassing the company’s crypto earnings for the same quarter.
Analysts Expect Higher Q3 Revenue but Lower Earnings Per Share
Analysts are optimistic about Q3, predicting earnings per share (EPS) of $0.54, up from $0.46 three months ago. They anticipate total revenue to reach around $1.41 billion.
| Metric | Consensus | Year Ago | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 EPS | $0.54 | $0.61 | Down 11.0% |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | $1.41 billion | $1.27 billion | Up 11.0% |
| FY2026 EPS | $2.15 | $2.05 | Up 4.9% |
| FY2026 Revenue | $5.28 billion | $4.47 billion | Up 18.1% |
Of the 29 analysts covering the stock, 6 recommend a strong buy, 18 a buy, 3 a hold, 1 a sell, and 1 a strong sell. Their average price target of $135 is roughly 38% above the stock’s premarket price.
Even with this optimism, Robinhood’s shares have struggled. The stock is trading around $98 premarket, down 4.1%, and has lost 20.7% over the past month amid a broader tech sell-off.
Additionally, CEO Vlad Tenev sold approximately $72.8 million in stock on September 22 and October 5. However, these sales followed a scheduled Rule 10b5-1 trading plan established on September 5, 2025, as indicated in his Form 4 filings.
Robinhood’s Crypto Trading Picked Up After a Slow Start to Q3
During the July 29 earnings call, management expressed caution about the crypto segment. Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma noted that crypto was “probably a little slower than Q2 so far,” while trading volumes in equities, options, and event contracts remained steady compared to Q2.
However, crypto trading rebounded as the quarter progressed. August saw crypto trading volume rise 61% to $17.5 billion, with late-September trading running 25% above the August average. Analysts at BTIG reported that September’s figures point to a generally strong Q3.
That said, even a strong finish may not turn the tide significantly. Robinhood hasn’t released complete crypto trading volume for the quarter yet, making a direct comparison with Q2 difficult. Moreover, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has gained 31.4% over the past 90 days, it still trades 21.8% below its price a year ago, making last year’s $268 million in crypto revenue a high bar to clear.
Event Contracts and Trump Accounts Could Shape Robinhood’s Q3 Report
Another focal point will be event contracts. Rothera, Robinhood’s exchange for event contracts, has quickly become one of the top three U.S.-designated contract markets, federally regulated exchanges for futures and event contracts.
Additionally, the launch of Trump Accounts—investment accounts for children—on July 4 has attracted over 7 million sign-ups and nearly $1.5 billion in deposits. The Q3 report will likely show how much these accounts contribute to Robinhood’s new-customer deposits.
Competitors are also chasing Robinhood’s customers. For instance, Interactive Brokers lets clients stake Ethereum directly on its platform.
Can Robinhood’s Crypto Revenue Recover in Q3?
Given the strong trading volumes in August and September, Robinhood’s crypto revenue could exceed Q2’s $100 million. However, surpassing last year’s $268 million figure seems unlikely while Bitcoin remains over 21% below its value from a year ago. Since crypto accounted for only 7.6% of total sales in Q2, performance in options, equities, event contracts, and interest income may better reflect the quarter’s overall results.
Ultimately, even if crypto revenue rebounds, it may not significantly affect the stock price. Historically, Robinhood shares have fallen on earnings day after each of the last four reports, even though three of those reports beat estimates. Thus, a successful Q3 might not drive gains unless management provides positive updates on October trading activity, a crucial month when Bitcoin began to show volatility.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
