Robinhood’s Prediction-Market Bets More Than Doubled as Crypto Trading Crashed
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Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD | HOOD Price Prediction) customers traded 5.9 billion event contracts in October 2026. That was up 136% from 2.5 billion a year earlier, according to monthly operating data the company released after the close on Thursday, November 12, 2026. Over the same period, crypto notional volume (the total dollar value traded) fell 48% to $17.0 billion from $32.5 billion.
The shares closed at $81.35 on November 12, down 3.82% in a session that ended before the release. They were at $81.92 after hours as of 7:59 p.m. ET, a 0.70% gain. The figures are unaudited and preliminary.
The stock sits about 42% below its one-year high of $139.75. That leaves shareholders asking whether a fast-growing product line can carry Robinhood through a crypto decline.
Event Contracts Keep Climbing While Crypto Shrinks
Event contracts are yes-or-no contracts on outcomes such as games or economic data. The October count rose from 5.6 billion in September, and average daily volume reached 190 million, up 135% from a year earlier.
Crypto activity fell across the business. Robinhood app volume fell 51% to $6.8 billion, Bitstamp exchange volume declined 45% to $10.2 billion, and daily crypto trades dropped 36% to 0.7 million.
Both Octobers had 31 trading days, so the drop reflects lower activity. Notional volume also fell 21% from $21.4 billion in September. Because both the app and the exchange declined, the weakness looks broad across crypto markets.
Can Prediction Markets Fill the Crypto Gap?
Robinhood didn’t report October revenue by product, so this release can’t show how much prediction markets offset crypto. On its October 27 call, management said Rothera, its prediction-market exchange, reached $100 million or more in annualized revenue in its first full quarter.
Crypto swings are much larger. Crypto revenue went from $268 million in the third quarter of 2025 to $100 million in the second quarter of 2026. Prediction markets would need to keep growing at this pace for several quarters to make up a decline that size.
Deposits Show Money Still Arriving
Net deposits reached $15.1 billion in October, up from $6.1 billion in September, a 46% annualized pace. However, management said October deposits included $6 billion from the Dell family’s gift to Trump Accounts, so the underlying pace is lower.
Funded customers reached 28.9 million. That was up about 130,000 from September and about 1.8 million from a year earlier. Platform assets of $383.2 billion fell from September but were 12% higher than a year earlier.
The margin book (money customers borrow to trade) grew 39% to $22.9 billion. That raises interest income but adds risk if markets fall. Securities lending revenue fell 43% to $34 million.
Concentration Risk in Event Contracts
Robinhood is the largest distribution partner for Kalshi, a private exchange, so much of this growth depends on one outside platform. Its hedge is Rothera, a venture with Susquehanna that bought 90% of the MIAXdx exchange. Robinhood says it will keep offering Kalshi contracts.
Regulators are looking more closely at prediction markets, and sports contracts draw the most attention. Non-sports activity rose to about 30% of the total in the third quarter, up from 15%.
What November Data Could Reveal for HOOD Stock
At $81.35, Robinhood’s share price already reflects a crypto drop visible in the monthly data, while deposits, customers and event contracts keep growing.
October PPI (the producer price index, a wholesale inflation measure) comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, November 13. It can shift interest-rate expectations, which affect both trading activity and Robinhood’s interest income. The better test is November operating data. If event contracts fall below September’s 5.6 billion while crypto volume drops again, the case that growth areas can offset crypto weakens.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
